What move does the options market price into Harley-Davidson's report?

Implied ±15.5%, either direction · provisional.

HOGNYSEMotorcycles, Bicycles & Parts

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

33.00

+1.78 · +5.70%

post 33.00 +0.01%

Closed19:34 ET

Open33.03Volume3.3MMkt cap$3.2BP/E17.84EPS1.85Div yield2.38%

Day32.77 – 33.1167%52-wk16.84 – 31.23100%

HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.5%implied · straddle

27.9538.19

spot 33.07exp Feb 19ATM strike 33ATM straddle 6.02IV 42%

Nov 2 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 9

before open · in 98 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.74%

vs ±6.3% implied · ×0.43

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

7hGS · supplierGoldman Sachs posts Q3 net earnings to common $5,122 million; nine months $16,924 million
4dLVWR · customerLiveWire says substantial doubt about ability to continue as going concern; appoints CRO
7dGIII · supplierWHP Global, G-III Apparel Group and I.T Group Announce Partnership to Accelerate Marc Jacobs Growth in Greater China

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.27%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

438 managers

Top fund weight

0.07%

HOG weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Harley-Davidson (HOG) is expected to report on Feb 9 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Feb 5 '25Feb 5 '25confirmed—▼−1.57%—

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed—▲+2.77%—

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed—▲+13.38%—

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed—▼−6.45%—

Feb 10 '26Feb 10 '26confirmed—▲+3.97%—

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed—▲+8.19%—

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed—▼−3.98%—

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±6.3%▲+2.74%×0.43

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±6.3%▲+2.74%×0.43

Q2 FY26—▼−3.98%—

Q1 FY26—▲+8.19%—

Feb '26—▲+3.97%—

Q3 FY25—▼−6.45%—

Jul '25—▲+13.38%—

2 older reports

May '25—▲+2.77%—

Feb '25—▼−1.57%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.83OI · 8 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

133+56%Nov 63d0.42314+6%0.42

166+6%Nov 1310d1.01165+43%1.01

2,084−11%Nov 2017d0.524,0290%0.52

39+5%Nov 2724d0.07548+1305%0.07

12—Dec 431d0.5721—0.57

84+8%Dec 1845d0.12692+1%0.12

8,603−3%Jan 1573d1.734,9770%1.73

report · Feb 9 · before open · est.

1,281+1%Feb 19108d1,549+1%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 63d133+56%314+6%0.42

Nov 1310d166+6%165+43%1.01

Nov 2017d2,084−11%4,0290%0.52

Nov 2724d39+5%548+1305%0.07

Dec 431d12—21—0.57

Dec 1845d84+8%692+1%0.12

Jan 1573d8,603−3%4,9770%1.73

report · Feb 9 · before open · est.

Feb 19108d1,281+1%1,549+1%0.83

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.5%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

IWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 2

GIII±5.3%×0.34

GS±4.2%×0.27

Customers 2

WWW±8.8%×0.57

KKR±5.6%×0.36

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

6.42%as filednet margin · revenue +4.94% QoQ · −5.86% YoY

Revenue

$1.2B+4.94% QoQ

Gross profit

$403M+10.47% QoQ

32.79% margin

Operating income

$76M+223.53% QoQ

6.18% margin

Pre-tax income

$95M+126.32% QoQ

Net income

$79M+227.41% QoQ

6.42% margin

Cost of revenue

$827M+2.44% QoQ

Operating expenses

$327M−4.18% QoQ

SG&A $297M

Other operating $31M

Tax

$16M−9.35% QoQ

Other income

$19M+3.56% QoQ

Revenue$1.2B+4.94%

Gross profit

$403M+10.47%

32.79% margin

Operating income

$76M+223.53%

6.18% margin

Pre-tax income

$95M+126.32%

Net income

$79M+227.41%

6.42% margin

Cost of revenue

$827M+2.44%

Operating expenses

$327M−4.18%

SG&A $297M

Other operating $31M

Other income$19M+3.56%

Tax$16M−9.35%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.32· ±2.4% vs ±1.8% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.4%8 of 11×1.32

CPIconsumer prices±2.2%5 of 11×1.18

NFPjobs report±2.0%7 of 10×1.12

FOMCrate decision±1.9%8 of 24×1.04

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%8 of 20×0.99

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.7%6 of 20×0.95

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%4 of 12×0.81

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.75 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	0.75	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	0.22	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	3.10	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod