Harley-Davidson, Inc. · Brief

Next report

101 days

Feb 9 · before openest.Q4 FY26

Earnings

Expected move

Inputs

±16.3%implied · straddle

26.1436.30

spot 31.22exp Feb 19ATM strike 31ATM straddle 5.97IV 44%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Implied vs realized

8 reportsHistory

—≥ implied

Feb 5 '25—▼−1.57%—

May 1 '25—▲+2.77%—

Jul 30 '25—▲+13.38%—

Q3 FY25—▼−6.45%—

Feb 10 '26—▲+3.97%—

Q1 FY26—▲+8.19%—

Q2 FY26—▼−3.98%—

Oct 29 '26±6.3%▲+2.74%×0.43

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±6.3%▲+2.74%×0.43

Q2 FY26—▼−3.98%—

Q1 FY26—▲+8.19%—

Feb '26—▲+3.97%—

Q3 FY25—▼−6.45%—

Jul '25—▲+13.38%—

2 older reports

May '25—▲+2.77%—

Feb '25—▼−1.57%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Bull & bear

Feb 9 report · est.

—

Linked exposure

HOG report session

Suppliers 2

GIIIG-III Apparel Group×0.34 GSGoldman Sachs×0.27

Customers 2

WWWWolverine World Wide×0.57 KKRKKR×0.36

× = co-movement · max 499dSource: SEC filings · market data

Latest changes

30 daysAll changes

Oct 15impliedImplied move: ±8.1% into Oct 29 earnings (Oct 15 close).Source

Oct 9report dateEarnings date confirmed: Oct 29.Source

Your note

privateThesis 0 · Decisions 0 · Observations 0

No thesis.