What move does the options market price into Target's report?

Implied ±7.4%, either direction.

How often does Target move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

TGTNYSERetail-Variety Stores

Target Corp (TGT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

154.25

Closed19:53 ET

Open153.71Volume5.3MMkt cap$70.1BP/E15.95EPS9.67Div yield2.97%

Day152.28 – 154.6085%52-wk81.20 – 170.7582%

TGT

Target Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±7.4%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.3%·×1.73·rich

142.88165.88

straddle ±8.5%

spot 154.38exp Nov 20ATM strike 155ATM straddle 15.45IV 52%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 18

before open · in 18 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.28%

vs ±6.0% implied · ×0.71

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 19 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

28.00%

of Honest revenue

supplierHNST 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.14%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

1,904 managers

Top fund weight

3.85%

TGT weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Target (TGT) is expected to report on Nov 18 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.7%
avg realized: ±4.3%

Mar 4 '25Mar 4 '25confirmed±7.4%▼−3.00%×0.41

May 21 '25May 21 '25confirmed±7.8%▼−5.21%×0.67

Aug 20 '25Aug 20 '25confirmed±8.0%▼−6.33%×0.79

Q3 FY25Nov 19 '25confirmed±8.2%▼−2.77%×0.34

Feb 11 '26Feb 11 '26confirmed±2.3%▲+2.25%×0.99

Mar 3 '26Mar 3 '26confirmed±7.1%▲+6.74%×0.95

Q1 FY26May 20 '26confirmed±6.7%▼−3.86%×0.57

Q2 FY26Aug 19 '26confirmed±6.0%▲+4.28%×0.71

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.0%▲+4.28%×0.71

Q1 FY26±6.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.86OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,642+154%Nov 66d0.912,889+94%0.91

2,699+257%Nov 1313d1.212,225+311%1.21

report · Nov 18 · before open · est.

13,958+22%Nov 2020d16,226+30%

268+765%Nov 2727d0.038,504+11549%0.03

10—Dec 1141d2.504—2.50

4 later expiries

38,040−1%Dec 1848d0.9141,642+4%0.91

54,8020%Jan 1576d0.74

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d2,642+154%2,889+94%0.91

Nov 1313d2,699+257%2,225+311%1.21

report · Nov 18 · before open · est.

Nov 2020d13,958+22%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±8.5%

Funds 4

XLP±0.3%

SCHD±0.2%

REVS±0.1%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 4

HELE±5.3%×0.62

CRI±5.1%×0.61

CRCT±3.1%×0.37

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

7.07%as filednet margin · revenue +4.31% QoQ · +5.27% YoY

Revenue

$26.5B+4.31% QoQ

Gross profit

$8.9B+21.05% QoQ

33.67% margin

Operating income

$2.6B+125.55% QoQ

9.65% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.5B+138.04% QoQ

Net income

$1.9B+140.33% QoQ

7.07% margin

Cost of revenue

$17.6B−2.54% QoQ

Operating expenses

$6.4B+2.06% QoQ

SG&A $5.7B

Depreciation $651M

Other expense

$101M

Tax

$582M+130.95% QoQ

Revenue$26.5B+4.31%

Gross profit

$8.9B+21.05%

33.67% margin

Operating income

$2.6B+125.55%

9.65% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.5B+138.04%

Net income

$1.9B+140.33%

7.07% margin

Cost of revenue

$17.6B−2.54%

Operating expenses

$6.4B+2.06%

SG&A $5.7B

Depreciation $651M

Other expense

$101M

Tax$582M+130.95%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 1 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.14· ±1.7% vs ±1.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.7%7 of 10×1.14

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%7 of 10×1.02

FOMCrate decision±1.4%13 of 24×0.94

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%11 of 19×0.73

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%10 of 19×0.55

NFPjobs report±0.8%5 of 10×0.51

CPROFcorporate profits±0.7%7 of 12×0.50

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.11 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 19 '26 · confirmed	4.11	—
Q1 FY26	May 20 '26 · confirmed	1.71	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 19 '25 · confirmed	1.51	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod