What move does the options market price into Triumph Financial's report?

Implied ±13.4%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Triumph Financial move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

TFINNYSEState Commercial Banks

Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

62.89

pre 64.91 +2.77%

Pre-market15:59 ETdelayed

Open64.21Volume213,486Mkt cap$1.5BP/E32.78EPS1.98

Day63.58 – 65.4272%52-wk49.27 – 83.5246%

TFIN

Triumph Financial, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±13.4%implied · straddle

56.1973.61

spot 64.90exp Feb 19ATM strike 65ATM straddle 10.25IV 37%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 25

after close · in 81 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.35%

vs ±9.1% implied · ×0.04

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

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News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−4.08%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

231 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

TFIN weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Triumph Financial (TFIN) is expected to report on Jan 25 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.4%
avg realized: ±5.3%

Jan 22 '25Jan 22 '25confirmed±7.5%▼−14.25%×1.90

Apr 16 '25Apr 16 '25confirmed±6.2%▼−2.66%×0.43

Jul 16 '25Jul 16 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−2.50%×0.43

Oct 15 '25Oct 15 '25confirmed±7.7%▲+7.10%×0.92

Jan 26 '26Jan 26 '26confirmed±6.6%▼−7.20%×1.10

Q1 FY26Apr 21 '26confirmed±7.7%▼−6.26%×0.82

Q2 FY26Jul 21 '26confirmed±8.6%▲+2.39%×0.28

Q3 FY26Oct 21 '26confirmed±9.1%▲+0.35%×0.04

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±9.1%▲+0.35%×0.04

Q2 FY26±8.6%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 19 close

0.36OI · 3 expiries · Oct 19 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,078+5%Nov 2015d1.81595+1%1.81

0—Dec 1843d—0——

report · Jan 25 · after close · est.

5670%Feb 19106d1,5700%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d1,078+5%595+1%1.81

Dec 1843d0—0——

report · Jan 25 · after close · est.

Feb 19106d567

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.4%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 1

AMZN±3.5%×0.26

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.69%as filednet margin · revenue +4.52% QoQ · +15.00% YoY

Revenue$126M+4.52%

Pre-tax income$18M+16.50%

Net income$13M10.69%+18.11%

Tax$5M+12.42%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.38· ±2.6% vs ±1.9% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.6%7 of 24×1.38

PPIproducer prices±1.9%6 of 10×1.03

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%2 of 10×0.70

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%8 of 19×0.64

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%7 of 12×0.60

NFPjobs report±1.1%6 of 10×0.60

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%8 of 19×0.56

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.52 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 21 '26 · confirmed	0.52	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 21 '26 · confirmed	0.44	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 21 '26 · confirmed	0.23	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod