What move does the options market price into Boston Beer's report?

Implied ±15.8%, either direction · provisional.

SAMNYSEMalt Beverages

Boston Beer Co Inc (SAM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

201.10

Closed17:55 ET

Open201.02Volume193,460Mkt cap$2.0BEPS-6.67

Day200.95 – 202.768%52-wk158.68 – 264.4640%

SAM

Boston Beer Co Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.8%implied · straddle

169.52233.10

spot 201.31exp Mar 19ATM strike 200ATM straddle 37.40IV 38%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 18

after close · in 110 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.35%

vs ±9.7% implied · ×0.34

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 22 '26 · confirmedthin chain

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+21.16%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

330 managers

Top fund weight

0.04%

SAM weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Boston Beer (SAM) is expected to report on Feb 18 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed—▲+3.23%—

Q3 FY26Oct 22 '26confirmed±9.7%thin chain▲+3.35%×0.34

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±9.7%▲+3.35%×0.34

Q2 FY26—+3.23%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 21 close

0.06OI · 3 expiries · Oct 21 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

145+56%Nov 2020d0.58252+14%0.58

3380%Dec 1848d0.487020%0.48

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

340+8%Mar 19139d5,524+2%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d145+56%252+14%0.58

Dec 1848d3380%7020%0.48

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

Mar 19139d340+8%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.8%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

MDY±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

8.30%as filednet margin · revenue −8.49% QoQ · −3.24% YoY

Revenue

$520M−8.49% QoQ

Gross profit

$269M−6.04% QoQ

51.74% margin

Operating income

$56M−20.40% QoQ

10.83% margin

Pre-tax income

$59M−18.55% QoQ

Net income

$43M−16.29% QoQ

8.30% margin

Cost of revenue

$251M−10.97% QoQ

Operating expenses

$213M−1.32% QoQ

Marketing $165M

SG&A $43M

Other operating $5M

Tax

$16M−24.15% QoQ

Other income

$3M+65.98% QoQ

Revenue$520M−8.49%

Gross profit

$269M−6.04%

51.74% margin

Operating income

$56M−20.40%

10.83% margin

Pre-tax income

$59M−18.55%

Net income

$43M−16.29%

8.30% margin

Cost of revenue

$251M−10.97%

Operating expenses

$213M−1.32%

Marketing $165M

SG&A $43M

Other operating $5M

Other income$3M+65.98%

Tax$16M−24.15%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 26 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.08· ±1.7% vs ±1.6% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.7%9 of 11×1.08

CPROFcorporate profits±1.7%4 of 12×1.08

NFPjobs report±1.7%7 of 10×1.07

FOMCrate decision±1.6%9 of 25×0.99

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%7 of 11×0.82

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%9 of 20×0.75

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%9 of 20×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.21 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 22 '26 · confirmed	4.21	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	4.96	—
Q1 FY26	—	-13.88	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod