What move does the options market price into Recursion's report?

Implied ±9.0%, either direction.

How often does Recursion move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RXRXNasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

4.02

Closed19:59 ET

Open4.01Volume24.4MMkt cap$2.2BEPS-1.00

Day3.80 – 4.0589%52-wk2.77 – 5.7642%

RXRX

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.7%·×1.92·rich

3.674.39

straddle ±12.8%

spot 4.03exp Nov 6ATM strike 4ATM straddle 0.61IV 136%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

before open · in 3 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−4.23%

vs ±14.1% implied · ×0.30

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3hGOOGL · supplierWhy AI is boosting Meta's ad business while hurting Google search
1dNVDA · supplierNvidia’s Megaspeed ties show potential blind spots in the U.S. effort to block China from accessing advanced chips
2dSNY · customerSanofi Q3 sales €14,444 million, business EPS €3.55; upgrades 2026 guidance

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+12.88%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

346 managers

Top fund weight

1.09%

RXRX weight · ARKK

N-PORTJul 31 '26

6 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Recursion (RXRX) is expected to report on Nov 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.1%
avg realized: ±4.7%

Nov 6 '24Nov 6 '24confirmed±10.7%▼−0.57%×0.05

Feb 28 '25Feb 28 '25confirmed±11.5%▼−2.09%×0.18

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±12.4%▼−16.58%×1.34

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±11.4%▼−4.66%×0.41

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±11.1%▼−0.80%×0.07

Q1 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±8.4%▲+6.80%×0.81

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±8.9%▲+1.78%×0.20

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±14.1%▼−4.23%×0.30

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.1%▼−4.23%×0.30

May '26±8.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 close

0.19OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,402+151%Nov 65d7,273+27%

236+3%Nov 1312d0.112,158+7%0.11

9,662+5%Nov 2019d0.2243,186+2%0.22

71+39%Nov 2726d0.09796+586%0.09

6,355+1%Dec 1847d0.4713,593+2%0.47

2 later expiries

22,394−1%Jan 1575d0.19116,6540%0.19

2,2930%Mar 19138d0.22

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d1,402+151%7,273+27%0.19

Nov 1312d236+3%2,158+7%0.11

Nov 2019d9,662+5%43,186+2%0.22

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.8%

Funds 4

ARKK±0.1%

XBI±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

Suppliers 2

NVDA±2.4%×0.19

GOOGL±1.6%×0.12

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−1708.02%as filednet margin · revenue +18.51% QoQ · −60.10% YoY

Revenue$8M+18.51%

Gross profit−$4M−49.82%+36.51%

Operating income−$135M−1759.69%−5.03%

Pre-tax income−$131M−7.29%

Net income−$131M−1708.02%−11.49%

Cost of revenue$11M−8.00%

Operating expenses$131M+7.07%

Tax−$1,000+99.98%

Other income$4M−38.06%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.06· ±4.3% vs ±4.0% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.3%9 of 19×1.06

GDPgross domestic product±4.2%10 of 19×1.04

FOMCrate decision±3.8%9 of 24×0.94

CPROFcorporate profits±3.5%6 of 12×0.87

NFPjobs report±3.5%4 of 9×0.87

PPIproducer prices±2.6%4 of 10×0.64

CPIconsumer prices±2.5%3 of 10×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±4.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.25 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.25	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	-0.22	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	-0.36	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod