How often does Relay Therapeutics move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RLAYNasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Relay Therapeutics, Inc. (RLAY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

17.43

+0.15 · +0.87%

post 17.43 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open17.45Volume3.2MMkt cap$3.8BEPS-1.56

Day17.43 – 17.890%52-wk5.95 – 21.2775%

RLAY

Relay Therapeutics, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.10%

vs ±17.0% implied · ×0.01

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+27.06%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

259 managers

Top fund weight

1.10%

RLAY weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±26.4%
avg realized: ±6.0%

Nov 6 '24Nov 6 '24confirmed±22.9%▼−1.76%×0.08

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±32.5%▼−13.33%×0.41

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±17.6%▼−5.12%×0.29

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±33.6%▼−7.74%×0.23

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±32.5%▼−7.35%×0.23

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±40.7%▲+12.01%×0.30

May 5 '26May 5 '26confirmed±14.2%▼−0.62%×0.04

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±17.0%▲+0.10%×0.01

quarterimplied−45%0+45%realized×

Q2 FY26±17.0%▲+0.10%×0.01

May '26±14.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.28OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

942+2%Nov 2016d3,3530%

7,8880%Dec 1844d0.869,2150%0.86

2,0040%Mar 19135d0.992,0170%0.99

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d942+2%3,3530%0.28

Dec 1844d7,8880%9,2150%0.86

Mar 19135d2,0040%2,0170%0.99

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−23916.29%as filednet margin · revenue −88.33% QoQ · −48.30% YoY

Revenue$350,000−88.33%

Gross profit$350,000100.00%−88.33%

Operating income−$91M−25949.71%−15.57%

Pre-tax income−$84M−14.29%

Net income−$84M−23916.29%−14.21%

Cost of revenue$0—

Operating expenses$91M+11.67%

Other income$7M+32.98%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.23· ±4.2% vs ±3.4% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.2%6 of 19×1.23

GDPgross domestic product±3.6%10 of 19×1.06

FOMCrate decision±3.4%11 of 24×0.99

PPIproducer prices±3.3%6 of 10×0.97

CPROFcorporate profits±3.1%6 of 12×0.90

NFPjobs report±2.1%7 of 10×0.63

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%7 of 10×0.39

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.41 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.41	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	-0.41	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.43	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod