What move does the options market price into Radian's report?

Implied ±7.9%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Radian move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RDNNYSESurety Insurance

Radian Group Inc (RDN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

36.03

−1.24 · −3.33%

post 36.04 +0.02%

Closed16:00 ET

Open36.68Volume1.3MMkt cap$4.9BP/E9.22EPS3.91Div yield2.74%

Day35.61 – 36.6839%52-wk30.53 – 40.7654%

RDN

Radian Group Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±7.9%implied · straddle

33.1438.80

spot 35.97exp Feb 19ATM strike 36ATM straddle 3.33IV 22%

Nov 6 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 18

before open · in 104 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.94%

vs ±6.5% implied · ×0.30

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.86%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26130d lag

390 managers

Top fund weight

0.16%

RDN weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Radian (RDN) is expected to report on Feb 18 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.0%
avg realized: ±2.9%

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±5.3%▼−1.81%×0.34

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±4.7%▲+1.94%×0.41

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±5.5%▼−2.69%×0.49

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±5.6%▼−0.87%×0.16

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±8.1%▲+1.39%×0.17

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±6.2%▲+5.29%×0.86

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±6.4%▼−7.43%×1.16

Q3 FY26Nov 5 '26confirmed±6.5%▲+1.94%×0.30

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.5%▲+1.94%×0.30

Q2 FY26±6.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.55OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,2060%Nov 2014d7.093110%7.09

2360%Dec 1842d1.112130%1.11

report · Feb 18 · before open · est.

2260%Feb 19105d4090%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d2,2060%3110%7.09

Dec 1842d2360%2130%1.11

report · Feb 18 · before open · est.

Feb 19105d2260%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.9%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

26.05%as filednet margin · revenue +8.16% QoQ · +107.18% YoY

Revenue

$628M+8.16% QoQ

Gross profit

$628M+8.16% QoQ

100.00% margin

Operating income

$254M+41.90% QoQ

40.40% margin

Pre-tax income

$228M+51.47% QoQ

Net income

$164M+41.19% QoQ

26.05% margin

Operating expenses

$374M−6.85% QoQ

Other operating $177M

SG&A $111M

Other operating $87M

Other expense

$25M

Tax

$56M+72.61% QoQ

Revenue$628M+8.16%

Gross profit

$628M+8.16%

100.00% margin

Operating income

$254M+41.90%

40.40% margin

Pre-tax income

$228M+51.47%

Net income

$164M+41.19%

26.05% margin

Cost of revenue

Operating expenses

$374M−6.85%

Other operating $177M

SG&A $111M

Other operating $87M

Other expense

$25M

Tax$56M+72.61%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 6 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.87· ±2.2% vs ±1.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.2%3 of 10×1.87

FOMCrate decision±1.7%13 of 24×1.47

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%8 of 19×1.24

NFPjobs report±1.5%6 of 10×1.23

PPIproducer prices±1.5%4 of 10×1.23

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%11 of 19×1.22

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%8 of 12×0.98

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.22 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 5 '26 · confirmed	1.22	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.85	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	0.89	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	1.03	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod