RDN as of Oct 31 · 19:26 ET

RDNNYSESurety Insurance

Radian Group Inc · Brief

Next report

4 days

Nov 4 · before openest.Q3 FY26

Earnings

Expected move

Inputs

±7.3%implied · report alone

32.9638.12

straddle ±7.8%

spot 35.54exp Nov 20ATM strike 36ATM straddle 3.25IV 47%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Implied vs realized

8 reportsHistory

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.7%
avg realized: ±3.2%

Aug 1 '24±4.1%▼−4.04%×0.99

Feb 6 '25±5.3%▼−1.81%×0.34

May 1 '25±4.7%▲+1.94%×0.41

Jul 31 '25±5.5%▼−2.69%×0.49

Q3 FY25±5.6%▼−0.87%×0.16

Feb 19 '26±8.1%▲+1.39%×0.17

Q1 FY26±6.2%▲+5.29%×0.86

Q2 FY26±6.4%▼−7.43%×1.16

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.4%▼−7.43%×1.16

Q1 FY26±6.2%▲+5.29%×0.86

Feb '26±8.1%▲+1.39%×0.17

Q3 FY25±5.6%▼−0.87%×0.16

Jul '25±5.5%▼−2.69%×0.49

May '25±4.7%▲+1.94%×0.41

2 older reports

Feb '25±5.3%▼−1.81%×0.34

Aug '24±4.1%▼−4.04%×0.99

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Bull & bear

Nov 4 report · est.

Bull2 of 3

8disclosed supplier and customer ties in SEC filingsSEC filings

390managers reporting a position in the latest quarterly filings13F · Jun 30 '26

Bear2 of 4

7 of 8recent reports where the move came in under the options-implied rangeEarnings history

4tracked funds holding RDNN-PORT · Aug 31 '26

AI captions · Sep 28 '26once per report · top 2 per case

Linked exposure

RDN report session

No linked exposure.

Latest changes

30 daysAll changes

Oct 21impliedImplied move: ±10.3% into Nov 4 earnings (Oct 21 close).Source

Your note

privateThesis 0 · Decisions 0 · Observations 0

No thesis.