What move does the options market price into Par Pacific's report?

Implied ±25.3%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Par Pacific move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PARRNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

71.61

+0.33 · +0.46%

post 69.03 −3.60%

After hours15:59 ETdelayed

Open72.57Volume1.1MMkt cap$3.6BP/E3.99EPS17.32

Day66.38 – 73.0040%52-wk34.37 – 90.7461%

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±25.3%implied · straddle

52.0287.30

spot 69.66exp Mar 19ATM strike 70ATM straddle 20.75IV 62%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 23

after close · in 111 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 3

after close

confirmedNov 3 close

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.18%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

371 managers

Top fund weight

0.09%

PARR weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Par Pacific (PARR) is expected to report on Feb 23 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.9%
avg realized: ±9.4%

Nov 4 '24Nov 4 '24confirmed±5.9%▼−4.49%×0.76

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±10.5%▼−9.66%×0.92

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±12.0%▲+10.64%×0.89

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±8.1%▼−11.12%×1.38

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±11.8%▼−7.16%×0.60

Feb 24 '26Feb 24 '26confirmed±11.0%▼−6.09%×0.55

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±8.8%▼−9.99%×1.13

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±10.9%▼−15.76%×1.44

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±10.9%▼−15.76%×1.44

Q1 FY26±8.8%▼−9.99%×1.13

Feb '26±11.0%▼−6.09%×0.55

Nov '25±11.8%▼−7.16%×0.60

Aug '25±8.1%▼−11.12%×1.38

May '25±12.0%▲+10.64%×0.89

2 older reports

Feb '25±10.5%▼−9.66%×0.92

Nov '24±5.9%▼−4.49%×0.76

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.35OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,1940%Nov 2016d0.721,6630%0.72

3910%Dec 1844d0.142,7100%0.14

4580%Jan 1572d0.381,2150%0.38

report · Feb 23 · after close · est.

177−9%Mar 19135d5070%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,1940%1,6630%0.72

Dec 1844d3910%2,7100%0.14

Jan 1572d4580%1,2150%0.38

report · Feb 23 · after close · est.

Mar 19135d177−9%5070%0.35

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±25.3%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

11.63%as filednet margin · revenue +2.81% QoQ · +51.64% YoY

Revenue

$3.1B+2.81% QoQ

Gross profit

$715M−16.11% QoQ

23.43% margin

Operating income

$472M−25.59% QoQ

15.47% margin

Pre-tax income

$465M−23.41% QoQ

Net income

$355M−23.33% QoQ

11.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.3B+10.44% QoQ

Operating expenses

$243M+11.47% QoQ

SG&A $193M

Depreciation $39M

Other operating $11M

Other expense

$7M

Tax

$110M−23.66% QoQ

Revenue$3.1B+2.81%

Gross profit

$715M−16.11%

23.43% margin

Operating income

$472M−25.59%

15.47% margin

Pre-tax income

$465M−23.41%

Net income

$355M−23.33%

11.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.3B+10.44%

Operating expenses

$243M+11.47%

SG&A $193M

Depreciation $39M

Other operating $11M

Other expense

$7M

Tax$110M−23.66%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.47· ±3.6% vs ±2.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.6%6 of 10×1.47

CPIconsumer prices±3.4%8 of 10×1.39

CPROFcorporate profits±2.5%7 of 12×1.05

FOMCrate decision±2.5%13 of 24×1.03

GDPgross domestic product±2.3%11 of 19×0.93

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%10 of 19×0.91

NFPjobs report±1.9%3 of 10×0.79

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 7.11 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	7.11	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	9.35	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	1.10	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod