What move does the options market price into Vail Resorts's report?

Implied ±4.1%, either direction.

MTNNYSEServices-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation

Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

151.99

Closed16:00 ET

Open154.97Volume432,996Mkt cap$5.4BP/E36.80EPS4.13Div yield5.85%

Day151.24 – 154.9720%52-wk114.90 – 158.0386%

MTN

Vail Resorts Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.1%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±3.9%·×1.05·fair

145.67157.99

straddle ±10.5%

spot 151.83exp Dec 18ATM strike 150ATM straddle 18.80IV 43%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 9

after close · in 39 days

est.Q1 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.32%

vs ±7.5% implied · ×0.31

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2dEPR · supplierEPR Properties Q3 net income available to common shareholders $94,137 thousand, diluted EPS $1.22
17dKTB · supplierHere are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Brinker, Kontoor Brands & more

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.28%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

442 managers

Top fund weight

0.13%

MTN weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Vail Resorts (MTN) is expected to report on Dec 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Dec 9 '24Dec 9 '24confirmed—▲+2.50%—

Mar 10 '25Mar 10 '25confirmed—▲+7.71%—

Jun 5 '25Jun 5 '25confirmed—▼−2.89%—

Sep 29 '25Sep 29 '25confirmed—▲+1.02%—

Dec 10 '25Dec 10 '25confirmed—▲+9.32%—

Q2 FY26Mar 9 '26confirmed—▲+0.93%—

Q3 FY26Jun 8 '26confirmed—▼−4.34%—

Q4 FY26Sep 28 '26confirmed±7.5%▲+2.32%×0.31

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q4 FY26±7.5%▲+2.32%×0.31

Q3 FY26—▼−4.34%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.07OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Dec 18 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3,735+3%Nov 2020d1.063,534+6%1.06

report · Dec 9 · after close · est.

110+116%Dec 1848d103+203%

2,2660%Jan 1576d1.341,697+1%1.34

6,701+8%Apr 16167d15.30438+17%15.30

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d3,735+3%3,534+6%1.06

report · Dec 9 · after close · est.

Dec 1848d110+116%103+203%1.07

Jan 1576d2,2660%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.5%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

SCHD±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 1

KTB±4.7%×0.45

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

derived from FYQ4 FY26

−71.47%derived from FYnet margin · revenue −76.91% QoQ · +2.44% YoY

Revenue$278M−76.91%

Gross profit−$24M−8.77%−103.55%

Operating income−$209M−75.04%−142.26%

Pre-tax income−$260M−158.31%

Net income−$199M−71.47%−158.45%

Cost of revenue$303M−41.57%

Operating expenses$186M−3.95%

Tax−$61M−157.83%

Other expense−$51M−5.95%

Derived: FY − Q1–Q3 · QE Jul 31 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×1.37· ±2.1% vs ±1.5% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±2.1%7 of 19×1.37

PPIproducer prices±2.0%5 of 10×1.28

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%6 of 10×1.27

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.9%9 of 19×1.23

CPROFcorporate profits±1.8%6 of 12×1.19

FOMCrate decision±1.8%10 of 24×1.17

NFPjobs report±1.3%6 of 10×0.82

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -5.36 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q4 FY26	Sep 28 '26 · confirmed	-5.36	—
Q3 FY26	Jun 8 '26 · confirmed	8.81	—
Q2 FY26	Mar 9 '26 · confirmed	5.87	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod