What move does the options market price into Knife River's report?

Implied ±19.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Knife River move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

KNFNYSEMining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)

Knife River Corp (KNF) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

57.11

pre 58.39 +1.99%

Pre-market07:16 ETdelayed

Open58.39Volume1.2MMkt cap$3.2BP/E24.74EPS2.36

Day58.39 – 58.3950%52-wk47.79 – 96.2822%

KNF

Knife River Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±19.1%implied · straddle

46.3368.17

spot 57.25exp Feb 19ATM strike 55ATM straddle 12.85IV 54%

Nov 5 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 16

before open · in 102 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.39%

vs ±11.8% implied · ×0.12

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.63%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

390 managers

Top fund weight

0.15%

KNF weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Knife River (KNF) is expected to report on Feb 16 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.7%
avg realized: ±6.6%

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±8.1%▲+4.28%×0.53

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±7.9%▼−5.26%×0.67

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±7.4%▲+1.94%×0.26

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±9.4%▲+8.36%×0.89

Feb 17 '26Feb 17 '26confirmed±6.4%▲+16.34%×2.56

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±9.0%▼−3.52%×0.39

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±10.1%▼−11.83%×1.17

Q3 FY26Nov 3 '26confirmed±11.8%▲+1.39%×0.12

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±11.8%▲+1.39%×0.12

Q2 FY26±10.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.32OI · 2 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

249+26%Nov 2014d0.67372+4%0.67

report · Feb 16 · before open · est.

850%Feb 19105d2670%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d249+26%372+4%0.67

report · Feb 16 · before open · est.

Feb 19105d850%2670%0.32

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±19.1%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

MDY±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.81%as filednet margin · revenue +35.91% QoQ · +5.97% YoY

Revenue

$1.3B+35.91% QoQ

Gross profit

$288M+76.69% QoQ

22.55% margin

Operating income

$214M+163.98% QoQ

16.79% margin

Pre-tax income

$189M+215.23% QoQ

Net income

$138M+214.20% QoQ

10.81% margin

Cost of revenue

$988M+27.35% QoQ

Operating expenses

$73M−10.02% QoQ

Other expense

$25M

Tax

$51M+218.08% QoQ

Revenue$1.3B+35.91%

Gross profit

$288M+76.69%

22.55% margin

Operating income

$214M+163.98%

16.79% margin

Pre-tax income

$189M+215.23%

Net income

$138M+214.20%

10.81% margin

Cost of revenue

$988M+27.35%

Operating expenses

$73M−10.02%

Other expense

$25M

Tax$51M+218.08%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

No trades yet today.

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.19· ±2.4% vs ±2.0% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.4%5 of 11×1.19

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%12 of 20×1.19

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.3%13 of 20×1.14

CPROFcorporate profits±2.1%6 of 12×1.06

NFPjobs report±1.9%4 of 10×0.93

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%2 of 11×0.91

FOMCrate decision±1.5%14 of 24×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.43 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 3 '26 · confirmed	2.43	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	0.77	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	-1.40	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod