What move does the options market price into Grail's report?

Implied ±11.9%, either direction.

How often does Grail move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

GRALNasdaqServices-Medical Laboratories

Grail, Inc. (GRAL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

133.35

−10.08 · −7.03%

post 134.66 +0.98%

Closed19:51 ET

Open135.50Volume983,305Mkt cap$6.0BEPS-9.68

Day133.32 – 136.3744%52-wk41.50 – 166.4875%

GRAL

Grail, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±15.9%·×0.75·cheap

117.88149.64

straddle ±16.4%

spot 133.76exp Nov 20ATM strike 135ATM straddle 25.85IV 109%

Nov 2 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−14.53%

vs ±14.1% implied · ×1.03

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

4hILMN · supplierIllumina selected to help bring precision medicine into everyday healthcare in Singapore
11hAMZN · supplierBetterInvesting™ Magazine Update on Amazon.com and UnitedHealth Group
13hAZN · customerAstraZeneca admits 11,948 ordinary shares to London Main Market

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+12.73%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

375 managers

Top fund weight

0.91%

GRAL weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Grail (GRAL) reports on Nov 4 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.4%
avg realized: ±15.9%

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±13.0%▼−14.72%×1.13

May 13 '25May 13 '25confirmed±15.8%▼−23.32%×1.48

Aug 12 '25Aug 12 '25confirmed±13.6%▲+1.13%×0.08

Q3 FY25Nov 12 '25confirmed±12.5%▼−1.85%×0.15

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed±9.5%▲+5.82%×0.61

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±7.3%▼−50.55%×6.95

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±13.3%▲+15.35%×1.16

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±14.1%▼−14.53%×1.03

quarterimplied−55%0+55%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.1%▼−14.53%×1.03

Q1 FY26±13.3%▲+15.35%×1.16

Feb '26±7.3%▼−50.55%×6.95

Jan '26±9.5%▲+5.82%×0.61

Q3 FY25±12.5%▼−1.85%×0.15

Aug '25±13.6%▲+1.13%×0.08

2 older reports

May '25±15.8%▼−23.32%×1.48

Feb '25±13.0%▼−14.72%×1.13

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 close

1.22OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,876+17%Nov 2017d2,365+20%

113+61%Dec 1845d0.81139+136%0.81

3,408+1%Jan 1573d0.536,439+3%0.53

258+37%Apr 16164d0.27948+10%0.27

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d2,876+17%2,365+20%1.22

Dec 1845d113+61%139+136%0.81

Jan 1573d3,408+1%6,439+3%0.53

Apr 16164d258+37%948+10%0.27

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±16.4%

Funds 4

XBI±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 2

TWST±5.1%×0.31

ILMN±2.4%×0.15

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−246.71%as filednet margin · revenue +9.57% QoQ · +25.72% YoY

Revenue$45M+9.57%

Gross profit$21M46.78%+9.08%

Operating income−$174M−388.89%−28.00%

Pre-tax income−$167M−30.73%

Net income−$110M−246.71%−18.31%

Cost of revenue$24M+10.00%

Operating expenses$195M+25.66%

Tax−$56M−64.44%

Other income$7M−14.16%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×1.81· ±8.1% vs ±4.5% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±8.1%12 of 19×1.81

PCEpersonal income & outlays±7.4%8 of 19×1.65

FOMCrate decision±4.6%5 of 18×1.03

NFPjobs report±4.4%4 of 10×0.98

CPROFcorporate profits±4.1%9 of 12×0.92

CPIconsumer prices±3.4%4 of 10×0.76

PPIproducer prices±2.9%6 of 10×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±9% · tick = ±4.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -2.56 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	-2.56	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	-2.29	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 12 '25 · confirmed	-2.46	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod