What move does the options market price into Geron's report?

Implied ±41.3%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Geron move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

GERNNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Geron Corp (GERN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

1.07

+0.14 · +15.56%

post 1.07 −0.44%

Closed18:36 ET

Open0.97Volume26.9MMkt cap$695.8MEPS-0.08

Day0.97 – 1.0796%52-wk0.84 – 2.0120%

GERN

Geron Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±41.3%implied · straddle

0.631.53

spot 1.08exp Mar 19ATM strike 1ATM straddle 0.53IV 106%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 24

before open · in 111 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+16.13%

vs ±18.3% implied · ×0.88

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.60%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

256 managers

Top fund weight

0.26%

GERN weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Geron (GERN) is expected to report on Feb 24 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±21.0%
avg realized: ±10.7%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±16.0%▲+0.47%×0.03

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±17.0%▼−32.07%×1.89

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±29.5%▼−0.76%×0.03

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±28.3%▲+15.83%×0.56

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±22.6%▼−5.22%×0.23

Q1 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±23.0%▼−11.79%×0.51

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±13.3%▼−3.68%×0.28

Q3 FY26Nov 4 '26confirmed±18.3%▲+16.13%×0.88

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q3 FY26±18.3%▲+16.13%×0.88

Q2 FY26±13.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.05OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1370%Nov 2015d0.091,528+10%0.09

1,1650%Dec 1843d0.472,489+4%0.47

14,1320%Jan 1571d0.2948,4130%0.29

report · Feb 24 · before open · est.

263+2%Mar 19134d4,8750%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d1370%1,528+10%0.09

Dec 1843d1,1650%2,489+4%0.47

Jan 1571d14,1320%48,4130%0.29

report · Feb 24 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±41.3%

Funds 4

XBI±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

2.24%as filednet margin · revenue +4.71% QoQ · +27.45% YoY

Revenue$60M+4.71%

Gross profit$54M89.95%+12.23%

Operating income$6M9.63%+146.41%

Pre-tax income$1M+108.09%

Net income$1M2.24%+108.09%

Cost of revenue$6M−34.51%

Operating expenses$48M−20.41%

Other expense−$4M−6.33%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 18:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.18· ±3.7% vs ±3.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.7%4 of 10×1.18

CPIconsumer prices±3.1%3 of 10×0.99

FOMCrate decision±3.1%10 of 24×0.99

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%7 of 19×0.76

PPIproducer prices±2.3%6 of 10×0.73

CPROFcorporate profits±2.1%5 of 12×0.67

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%8 of 19×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±3.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.00 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 4 '26 · confirmed	0.00	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.02	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	-0.01	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	-0.03	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod