What move does the options market price into Geron's report?

Implied ±20.6%, either direction.

How often does Geron move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

GERNNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Geron Corp (GERN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

0.96

Closed19:40 ET

Open0.93Volume58.8MMkt cap$597.5MEPS-0.11

Day0.93 – 0.9694%52-wk0.84 – 2.0110%

GERN

Geron Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±20.6%implied · straddle

0.741.12

spot 0.93exp Nov 20ATM strike 1ATM straddle 0.23IV 128%

Nov 2 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Today

before open

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−3.68%

vs ±13.3% implied · ×0.28

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.60%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

256 managers

Top fund weight

0.26%

GERN weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Geron (GERN) is expected to report on Nov 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±19.8%
avg realized: ±8.8%

Aug 8 '24Aug 8 '24confirmed±8.4%▲+0.88%×0.10

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±16.0%▲+0.47%×0.03

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±17.0%▼−32.07%×1.89

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±29.5%▼−0.76%×0.03

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±28.3%▲+15.83%×0.56

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±22.6%▼−5.22%×0.23

Q1 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±23.0%▼−11.79%×0.51

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±13.3%▼−3.68%×0.28

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±13.3%▼−3.68%×0.28

Q1 FY26±23.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.09OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1370%Nov 2016d1,528+10%

1,1650%Dec 1844d0.472,489+4%0.47

14,1320%Jan 1572d0.2948,4130%0.29

263+2%Mar 19135d0.054,8750%0.05

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1370%1,528+10%0.09

Dec 1844d1,1650%2,489+4%0.47

Jan 1572d14,1320%48,4130%0.29

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±20.6%

Funds 4

XBI±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−29.02%as filednet margin · revenue +10.89% QoQ · +17.22% YoY

Revenue$57M+10.89%

Gross profit$48M83.92%−3.80%

Operating income−$12M−21.74%−8008.86%

Pre-tax income−$17M−357.99%

Net income−$17M−29.02%−357.99%

Cost of revenue$9M+446.10%

Operating expenses$61M+21.50%

Other expense−$4M−10.11%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.18· ±3.7% vs ±3.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.7%4 of 10×1.18

CPIconsumer prices±3.1%3 of 10×0.99

FOMCrate decision±3.1%10 of 24×0.99

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%7 of 19×0.76

PPIproducer prices±2.3%6 of 10×0.73

CPROFcorporate profits±2.1%5 of 12×0.67

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%8 of 19×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±3.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.02 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.02	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	-0.01	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	-0.03	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod