What move does the options market price into Fossil's report?

Implied ±18.4%, either direction.

FOSLNasdaqWatches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

7.56

+0.87 · +12.94%

post 7.56 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open7.03Volume453,775Mkt cap$395.6MEPS-1.26

Day7.03 – 7.56100%52-wk1.70 – 7.39100%

FOSL

Fossil Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±18.4%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±15.2%·×1.21·rich

6.229.02

straddle ±20.1%

spot 7.62exp Nov 20ATM strike 8ATM straddle 1.80IV 137%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 12

after close · in 7 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.88%

vs ±15.9% implied · ×0.37

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 12 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

13hCRM · supplierAIMG® Sizes AI Governance Platforms Market at $12.5 Billion by 2030; Microsoft, Databricks and Salesforce Top AI LeaderMap®
2dORCL · supplierOracle Announces Pricing of $20 Billion of Common Stock and Senior Notes

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+28.06%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

112 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

FOSL weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Fossil (FOSL) is expected to report on Nov 12 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed—▼−8.66%—

Mar 12 '25Mar 12 '25confirmed—▲+29.13%—

May 14 '25May 14 '25confirmed—▲+15.87%—

Aug 13 '25Aug 13 '25confirmed—▲+29.83%—

Q3 FY25Nov 13 '25confirmed—▼−9.29%—

Q1 FY26Mar 11 '26confirmed—▲+16.50%—

May 13 '26May 13 '26confirmed—▲+6.10%—

Q2 FY25Aug 12 '26confirmed±15.9%▲+5.88%×0.37

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q2 FY25±15.9%▲+5.88%×0.37

May '26—▲+6.10%—

Q1 FY26—▲+16.50%—

Q3 FY25—▼−9.29%—

Aug '25—▲+29.83%—

May '25—▲+15.87%—

2 older reports

Mar '25—▲+29.13%—

Nov '24—▼−8.66%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 23 close

0.15OI · 3 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

213−6%Nov 2015d1,417+14%

149+20%Dec 1843d0.40375+1%0.40

960%Mar 19134d0.17555−2%0.17

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d213−6%1,417+14%0.15

Dec 1843d149+20%375+1%0.40

Mar 19134d960%555−2%0.17

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±20.1%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY26

−0.30%as filednet margin · revenue −19.88% QoQ · −3.66% YoY

Revenue$225M−19.88%

Gross profit$135M59.93%−16.33%

Operating income$12M5.36%+1301.05%

Pre-tax income$5M+164.97%

Net income−$677,000−0.30%+96.21%

Cost of revenue$90M−24.65%

Operating expenses$123M−26.75%

Tax$5M−48.41%

Other expense−$7M+10.82%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Apr 4 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.01· ±4.1% vs ±4.1% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±4.1%8 of 24×1.01

PPIproducer prices±4.0%3 of 10×1.00

CPROFcorporate profits±3.7%7 of 12×0.92

GDPgross domestic product±3.6%10 of 19×0.88

CPIconsumer prices±3.1%5 of 10×0.76

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.1%10 of 19×0.76

NFPjobs report±3.0%2 of 10×0.74

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±4.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.01 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY26	Mar 11 '26 · confirmed	-0.01	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 13 '25 · confirmed	-0.76	—
Q2 FY25	Aug 12 '26 · confirmed	-0.18	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod