What move does the options market price into Essent's report?

Implied ±4.6%, either direction.

How often does Essent move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ESNTNYSESurety Insurance

Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

69.38

Closed16:00 ET

Open68.66Volume839,774Mkt cap$6.2BP/E9.60EPS7.23Div yield1.96%

Day68.33 – 69.5884%52-wk55.06 – 70.0795%

ESNT

Essent Group Ltd.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±3.0%·×1.54·rich

66.1672.52

straddle ±4.9%

spot 69.34exp Nov 20ATM strike 70ATM straddle 4.03IV 34%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structurethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 6

before open · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.90%

vs ±5.9% implied · ×0.84

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 7 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

8dSPGI · supplierS&P Global Q3 net income $1,240 million, revenue $3,678 million, diluted EPS $4.25
46dMCO · supplierMoody’s Just Delivered Its Best Quarter in Years. Is Its Stock Still Undervalued?

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−2.28%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

362 managers

Top fund weight

0.18%

ESNT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Essent (ESNT) is expected to report on Nov 6 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.0%
avg realized: ±3.0%

Feb 14 '25Feb 14 '25confirmed±4.4%▼−2.59%×0.59

Mar 27 '25Mar 27 '25confirmed±6.8%▲+0.79%×0.12

May 9 '25May 9 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−0.32%×0.06

Aug 8 '25Aug 8 '25confirmed±5.1%▲+5.70%×1.12

Q3 FY25Nov 7 '25confirmed±7.0%▲+0.54%×0.08

Feb 13 '26Feb 13 '26confirmed±6.9%▼−6.43%×0.93

Q1 FY26May 8 '26confirmed±6.3%▲+2.52%×0.40

Q2 FY26Aug 7 '26confirmed±5.9%▲+4.90%×0.84

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±5.9%▲+4.90%×0.84

Q1 FY26±6.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.42OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

110%Nov 2015d260%

17+1600%Dec 1843d5.6730%5.67

7020%Jan 1571d10.97640%10.97

2120%Apr 16162d0.972190%0.97

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d110%260%0.42

Dec 1843d17+1600%30%5.67

Jan 1571d7020%640%10.97

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±4.9%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

MDY±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 2

MCO±1.8%×0.36

SPGI±1.6%×0.33

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

53.51%as filednet margin · revenue +8.12% QoQ · +14.00% YoY

Revenue$355M+8.12%

Pre-tax income$230M+11.41%

Net income$190M53.51%+10.43%

Tax$41M+16.26%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.86· ±2.0% vs ±1.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%4 of 10×1.86

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%11 of 19×1.45

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%12 of 19×1.40

NFPjobs report±1.5%6 of 10×1.39

FOMCrate decision±1.4%13 of 24×1.33

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%7 of 12×1.26

PPIproducer prices±1.3%2 of 10×1.19

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.08 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 7 '26 · confirmed	2.08	—
Q1 FY26	May 8 '26 · confirmed	1.82	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 7 '25 · confirmed	1.67	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod