What move does the options market price into Denali Therapeutics's report?

Implied ±14.1%, either direction.

How often does Denali Therapeutics move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

DNLINasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

19.01

Closed17:00 ET

Open19.19Volume1.3MMkt cap$3.0BEPS-2.84

Day18.69 – 19.4045%52-wk13.75 – 27.3039%

DNLI

Denali Therapeutics Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±14.1%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±3.1%·×4.52·rich

16.2821.60

straddle ±17.6%

spot 18.94exp Nov 20ATM strike 20ATM straddle 3.93IV 103%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.40%

vs ±9.8% implied · ×0.04

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2dSNY · supplierSanofi Q3 sales €14,444 million, business EPS €3.55; upgrades 2026 guidance
3dBIIB · supplierBiogen to Present New Data Across Alzheimer's Disease Portfolio at CTAD 2026
3dTAK · customerTakeda: six-month revenue JPY 2,407.0 billion; net profit JPY 305,716 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+13.58%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

296 managers

Top fund weight

0.83%

DNLI weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.1%
avg realized: ±3.1%

Nov 6 '24Nov 6 '24confirmed±7.6%▲+0.17%×0.02

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±16.6%▼−10.97%×0.66

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±15.9%▲+2.51%×0.16

Aug 11 '25Aug 11 '25confirmed±11.9%▼−5.03%×0.42

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±16.4%▲+4.23%×0.26

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±14.9%▼−1.12%×0.08

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±11.8%▼−0.46%×0.04

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±9.8%▲+0.40%×0.04

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±9.8%▲+0.40%×0.04

May '26±11.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.10OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

96+1%Nov 2019d9180%

5,2320%Dec 1847d2.012,5980%2.01

2,272+7%Mar 19138d1.301,7430%1.30

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d96+1%9180%0.10

Dec 1847d5,2320%2,5980%2.01

Mar 19138d2,272+7%1,7430%1.30

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.6%

Funds 4

XBI±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

BIIB±3.3%×0.19

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−3539.21%as filednet margin

Revenue$4M—

Gross profit$4M97.42%—

Operating income−$131M−3622.11%+4.96%

Pre-tax income−$128M+0.70%

Net income−$128M−3539.21%+0.70%

Cost of revenue$93,000—

Operating expenses$134M−2.41%

Other income$3M−66.46%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.17· ±3.3% vs ±2.8% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±3.3%12 of 24×1.17

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.8%8 of 19×0.99

CPROFcorporate profits±2.6%6 of 12×0.94

CPIconsumer prices±2.5%3 of 10×0.88

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%11 of 19×0.70

PPIproducer prices±1.8%6 of 10×0.63

NFPjobs report±1.2%2 of 10×0.43

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.68 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.68	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	-0.69	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.74	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod