What move does the options market price into ConocoPhillips's report?

Implied ±2.2%, either direction.

How often does ConocoPhillips move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

COPNYSEPetroleum Refining

ConocoPhillips (COP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

154.07

Closed19:45 ET

Open151.99Volume7.0MMkt cap$185.0BP/E20.33EPS7.58Div yield2.18%

Day151.84 – 154.07100%52-wk82.95 – 154.28100%

COP

ConocoPhillips

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.1%·×1.04·fair

150.70157.36

straddle ±4.1%

spot 154.03exp Nov 6ATM strike 155ATM straddle 7.40IV 43%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 5 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.50%

vs ±2.8% implied · ×0.54

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

13.00%

of SFL revenue

supplierSFL 20-F

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.44%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

2,470 managers

Top fund weight

6.57%

COP weight · XLE

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

ConocoPhillips (COP) reports on Nov 5 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±2.6%
avg realized: ±2.1%

Oct 31 '24Oct 31 '24confirmed±2.4%▲+6.37%×2.63

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±2.5%▼−0.27%×0.11

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±2.8%▲+1.27%×0.45

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±2.6%▼−0.55%×0.21

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±2.7%▼−2.33%×0.86

Feb 5 '26Feb 5 '26confirmed±2.4%▼−2.43%×1.02

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±2.3%▼−1.93%×0.85

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±2.8%▲+1.50%×0.54

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±2.8%▲+1.50%×0.54

Q1 FY26±2.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.99OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3,617+3%Nov 66d3,639+2%

699+2%Nov 1313d0.96729+2%0.96

14,515+2%Nov 2020d0.3442,4000%0.34

201+1727%Nov 2727d0.93215+169%0.93

12+1100%Dec 434d0.09141+7%0.09

5 later expiries

0—Dec 1141d—0——

25,887+1%Dec 1848d0.77

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d3,617+3%3,639+2%0.99

Nov 1313d699+2%729+2%0.96

Nov 2020d14,515+2%42,4000%0.34

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±4.1%

Funds 4

XLE±0.3%

SCHD±0.2%

REVS±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 3

CRGY±5.0%×1.22

NEXT±3.1%×0.76

SFL±1.4%×0.35

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

20.14%as filednet margin · revenue +23.86% QoQ · +39.40% YoY

Revenue

$19.5B+23.86% QoQ

Gross profit

$12.0B+26.79% QoQ

61.56% margin

Operating income

$6.2B+88.09% QoQ

31.96% margin

Pre-tax income

$6.1B+80.85% QoQ

Net income

$3.9B+80.07% QoQ

20.14% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.5B+19.45% QoQ

Operating expenses

$5.8B−6.22% QoQ

Depreciation $3.0B

SG&A $2.6B

Exploration $75M

Other operating $101M

Other expense

$157M

Tax

$2.2B+82.29% QoQ

Revenue$19.5B+23.86%

Gross profit

$12.0B+26.79%

61.56% margin

Operating income

$6.2B+88.09%

31.96% margin

Pre-tax income

$6.1B+80.85%

Net income

$3.9B+80.07%

20.14% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.5B+19.45%

Operating expenses

$5.8B−6.22%

Depreciation $3.0B

SG&A $2.6B

Exploration $75M

Other expense

$157M

Tax$2.2B+82.29%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.34· ±1.8% vs ±1.4% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.8%5 of 11×1.34

FOMCrate decision±1.5%13 of 25×1.11

NFPjobs report±1.5%4 of 10×1.09

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%8 of 11×1.05

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%7 of 20×0.77

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%8 of 20×0.72

CPROFcorporate profits±0.8%4 of 12×0.59

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.23 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	3.23	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	1.78	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	1.38	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod