What move does the options market price into Cipher Digital's report?

Implied ±12.5%, either direction.

How often does Cipher Digital move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CIFRNasdaqFinance Services

Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

7.29

−0.81 · −10.00%

post 7.37 +1.10%

Closed19:52 ET

Open7.60Volume56.6MMkt cap$3.0BEPS-2.85

Day6.98 – 7.7551%52-wk6.93 – 30.142%

CIFR

Cipher Digital Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±13.3%·×0.94·fair

6.388.20

straddle ±17.3%

spot 7.29exp Nov 6ATM strike 7.5ATM straddle 1.48IV 181%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 2

before open · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−15.65%

vs ±17.8% implied · ×0.88

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

70.00%

of CIFR revenue · Foundry USA Pool

customerCIFR 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.03%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

479 managers

Top fund weight

0.65%

CIFR weight · BCOR

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Cipher Digital (CIFR) is expected to report on Nov 2 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.8%
avg realized: ±13.3%

Oct 31 '24Oct 31 '24confirmed±11.4%▼−6.63%×0.58

Feb 25 '25Feb 25 '25confirmed±15.2%▼−17.42%×1.14

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±10.8%▲+2.01%×0.19

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±7.1%▼−6.53%×0.92

Q3 FY25Nov 3 '25confirmed±16.0%▲+22.04%×1.37

Feb 24 '26Feb 24 '26confirmed±12.6%▲+12.48%×0.99

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±11.0%▲+23.53%×2.14

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±17.8%▼−15.65%×0.88

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±17.8%▼−15.65%×0.88

Q1 FY26±11.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.47OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

24,203+2%Nov 65d51,586+23%

6,688+1%Nov 1312d0.719,375+2%0.71

50,9290%Nov 2019d0.15328,6690%0.15

3,247+18%Nov 2726d0.635,194+3%0.63

1,211+13%Dec 433d1.36891+15%1.36

4 later expiries

0—Dec 1140d—0——

61,6810%Dec 1847d0.50

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d24,203+2%51,586+23%0.47

Nov 1312d6,688+1%9,375+2%0.71

Nov 2019d50,9290%328,6690%0.15

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.3%

Funds 4

BCOR±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

PWR±3.1%×0.18

Customers 2

AMZN±1.7%×0.10

GOOGL±1.5%×0.08

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−1077.14%as filednet margin · revenue −28.71% QoQ · −41.68% YoY

Revenue$25M−28.71%

Gross profit−$36M−145.64%+17.72%

Operating income−$79M−316.21%+31.45%

Pre-tax income−$267M−134.54%

Net income−$268M−1077.14%−134.03%

Cost of revenue$61M−22.58%

Operating expenses$36M−26.34%

Tax$367,000−9.83%

Other expense−$195M−812.14%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.09· ±6.0% vs ±5.5% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±6.0%8 of 19×1.09

GDPgross domestic product±6.0%6 of 19×1.08

NFPjobs report±5.2%4 of 10×0.93

PPIproducer prices±4.9%3 of 10×0.88

CPROFcorporate profits±4.7%3 of 12×0.84

FOMCrate decision±4.6%11 of 24×0.83

CPIconsumer prices±3.3%7 of 10×0.60

Bar = avg |move| to ±7% · tick = ±5.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±5.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.65 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.65	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.28	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 3 '25 · confirmed	-0.01	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod