What move does the options market price into Xponential Fitness's report?

Implied ±5.7%, either direction.

How often does Xponential Fitness move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

XPOFNYSEServices-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation

Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

4.71

−0.07 · −1.54%

Regular session12:32 ET

Open4.71Volume1.2MMkt cap$235.8MEPS-1.48

Day4.70 – 4.7712%52-wk3.57 – 9.2520%

XPOF

Xponential Fitness, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±20.0%·×0.28·cheap

4.515.05

straddle ±20.0%

spot 4.78exp Nov 20ATM strike 5ATM straddle 1.13IV 129%

Nov 2 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 2 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−20.91%

vs ±23.7% implied · ×0.88

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+23.76%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

116 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

XPOF weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Xponential Fitness (XPOF) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±19.3%
avg realized: ±20.0%

Mar 13 '25Mar 13 '25confirmed±17.8%▼−38.45%×2.16

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±19.3%▼−6.44%×0.33

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±17.4%▼−26.38%×1.51

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±22.8%▲+1.59%×0.07

Feb 26 '26Feb 26 '26confirmed±19.4%▼−47.08%×2.43

Q1 FY26Mar 10 '26confirmed±14.7%▲+5.05%×0.34

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±19.6%▼−14.37%×0.73

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±23.7%▼−20.91%×0.88

quarterimplied−50%0+50%realized×

Q2 FY26±23.7%▼−20.91%×0.88

May '26±19.6%▼−14.37%×0.73

Q1 FY26±14.7%▲+5.05%×0.34

Feb '26±19.4%▼−47.08%×2.43

Q3 FY25±22.8%▲+1.59%×0.07

Aug '25±17.4%▼−26.38%×1.51

2 older reports

May '25±19.3%▼−6.44%×0.33

Mar '25±17.8%▼−38.45%×2.16

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.19OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

135+59%Nov 2017d708+79%

3760%Dec 1845d0.142,6800%0.14

83+5%Jan 1573d0.15540+1%0.15

28−12%Apr 16164d0.231210%0.23

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d135+59%708+79%0.19

Dec 1845d3760%2,6800%0.14

Jan 1573d83+5%540+1%0.15

Apr 16164d28−12%1210%0.23

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±20.0%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−7.32%as filednet margin · revenue +8.65% QoQ · −13.44% YoY

Revenue$66M+8.65%

Gross profit$56M85.18%+4.40%

Operating income$10M14.42%−27.06%

Pre-tax income−$5M−485.50%

Net income−$5M−7.32%−489.15%

Cost of revenue$10M+41.86%

Operating expenses$47M+14.46%

Tax$65,000+983.33%

Other expense−$14M−3.05%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 12:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.88· ±6.1% vs ±3.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±6.1%4 of 10×1.88

NFPjobs report±4.9%3 of 10×1.50

CPROFcorporate profits±3.4%8 of 12×1.05

FOMCrate decision±3.3%10 of 24×1.01

GDPgross domestic product±3.1%10 of 19×0.95

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.5%9 of 19×0.76

CPIconsumer prices±2.2%7 of 10×0.69

Bar = avg |move| to ±7% · tick = ±3.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.10 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.10	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 10 '26 · confirmed	-0.02	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.18	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod