What move does the options market price into Walmart's report?

Implied ±5.9%, either direction.

How often does Walmart move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

WMTNasdaqRetail-Variety Stores

Walmart Inc. (WMT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

123.53

Closed19:53 ET

Open123.79Volume29.8MMkt cap$979.9BP/E44.44EPS2.78Div yield0.79%

Day123.09 – 124.2139%52-wk98.06 – 134.8369%

WMT

Walmart Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.8%·×1.21·rich

116.24130.78

straddle ±6.2%

spot 123.51exp Nov 20ATM strike 124ATM straddle 9.00IV 38%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 19

before open · in 18 days

confirmedQ3 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−9.15%

vs ±8.1% implied · ×1.13

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

85.00%

of Symbotic revenue

supplierSYM 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.85%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

4,416 managers

Top fund weight

10.80%

WMT weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

14 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Walmart (WMT) reports on Nov 19 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.8%
avg realized: ±4.8%

Nov 19 '24Nov 19 '24confirmed±4.8%▲+3.00%×0.62

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±4.3%▼−6.53%×1.51

May 15 '25May 15 '25confirmed±4.1%▼−0.50%×0.12

Aug 21 '25Aug 21 '25confirmed±4.0%▼−4.49%×1.12

Q3 FY26Nov 20 '25confirmed±4.1%▲+6.46%×1.56

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±4.6%▼−1.38%×0.30

Q1 FY27May 21 '26confirmed±3.9%▼−7.27%×1.86

Q2 FY27Aug 20 '26confirmed±8.1%▼−9.15%×1.13

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY27±8.1%▼−9.15%×1.13

Q1 FY27±3.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.39OI · 8 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

10,115+22%Nov 65d0.4920,806+22%0.49

6,370+26%Nov 1312d0.4015,904+5%0.40

report · Nov 19 · before open · confirmed

88,067+2%Nov 2019d227,893+1%

2,398+10%Nov 2726d0.327,501+5%0.32

518—Dec 433d1.03502—1.03

3 later expiries

68,580+1%Dec 1847d0.8284,0100%0.82

127,0130%Jan 1575d0.81

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d10,115+22%20,806+22%0.49

Nov 1312d6,370+26%15,904+5%0.40

report · Nov 19 · before open · confirmed

Nov 2019d88,067+2%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±6.2%

Funds 4

XLP±0.7%

QQQ±0.1%

VIG±0.1%

VTV±0.1%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY27

3.47%as filednet margin · revenue +5.73% QoQ · +5.94% YoY

Revenue

$188B+5.73% QoQ

Walmart US $125B

Walmart International $35.2B

Sams Club US $25.7B

Gross profit

$49.1B+9.93% QoQ

26.14% margin

Operating income

$9.4B+25.22% QoQ

4.99% margin

Pre-tax income

$8.0B+12.09% QoQ

Net income

$6.5B+18.93% QoQ

3.47% margin

Cost of revenue

$139B+4.32% QoQ

Operating expenses

$39.8B+6.85% QoQ

Other expense

$1.4B

Tax

$1.5B−10.55% QoQ

Revenue$188B+5.73%

Walmart US $125B · Walmart International $35.2B

Gross profit

$49.1B+9.93%

26.14% margin

Operating income

$9.4B+25.22%

4.99% margin

Pre-tax income

$8.0B+12.09%

Net income

$6.5B+18.93%

3.47% margin

Cost of revenue

$139B+4.32%

Operating expenses

$39.8B+6.85%

Other expense

$1.4B

Tax$1.5B−10.55%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.60· ±1.6% vs ±1.0% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%7 of 11×1.60

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%11 of 19×1.30

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%9 of 19×1.23

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%5 of 12×1.08

PPIproducer prices±1.0%5 of 11×1.00

NFPjobs report±1.0%6 of 10×0.98

FOMCrate decision±0.9%12 of 25×0.88

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.80 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY27	Aug 20 '26 · confirmed	0.80	—
Q1 FY27	May 21 '26 · confirmed	0.67	—
Q3 FY26	Nov 20 '25 · confirmed	0.77	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod