What move does the options market price into Vistra's report?

Implied ±5.2%, either direction.

How often does Vistra move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

VSTNYSEElectric Services

Vistra Corp. (VST) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

112.13

−8.16 · −6.78%

Regular session11:14 ET

Open118.21Volume20.3MMkt cap$46.9BP/E18.69EPS6.00Div yield0.65%

Day112.11 – 120.500%52-wk132.26 – 195.660%

VST

Vistra Corp.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.1%·×1.26·rich

114.09126.49

straddle ±5.8%

spot 120.29exp Nov 6ATM strike 120ATM straddle 8.23IV 115%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 6

before open · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.56%

vs ±4.2% implied · ×0.13

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 7 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

9dCNP · supplierCenterPoint Energy Q3 net income $331 million, GAAP EPS $0.50; raises 2026 non-GAAP EPS to $1.90-$1.92

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,412 managers

Top fund weight

3.54%

VST weight · XLU

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Vistra (VST) reports on Nov 6 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.2%
avg realized: ±4.1%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±6.8%▲+7.65%×1.12

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±7.8%▼−12.27%×1.57

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±7.1%▼−3.66%×0.52

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±6.8%▲+2.36%×0.35

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±5.7%▼−2.52%×0.44

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±5.9%▲+0.83%×0.14

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±5.4%▼−2.74%×0.51

Q2 FY26Aug 7 '26confirmed±4.2%▼−0.56%×0.13

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±4.2%▼−0.56%×0.13

May '26±5.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.73OI · 10 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

22,380+4%Nov 61d30,548+19%

5,258+4%Nov 138d0.687,701+3%0.68

53,883+1%Nov 2015d1.0949,590+4%1.09

1,340+2%Nov 2722d0.652,053+2%0.65

191+32%Dec 429d0.74258+33%0.74

5 later expiries

65+51%Dec 1136d0.44149+45%0.44

37,5620%Dec 1843d0.72

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 61d22,380+4%30,548+19%0.73

Nov 138d5,258+4%7,701+3%0.68

Nov 2015d53,883+1%49,590+4%1.09

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±5.8%

Funds 4

XLU±0.2%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

SPY±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

7.59%as filednet margin · revenue −28.78% QoQ · −5.48% YoY

Revenue

$4.0B−28.78% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.2B−27.88% QoQ

55.84% margin

Operating income

$553M−63.11% QoQ

13.77% margin

Pre-tax income

$427M−64.77% QoQ

Net income

$305M−70.36% QoQ

7.59% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.8B−29.88% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.7B+4.90% QoQ

SG&A $1.2B

Depreciation $445M

Other expense

$126M

Tax

$122M−33.33% QoQ

Revenue$4.0B−28.78%

Gross profit

$2.2B−27.88%

55.84% margin

Operating income

$553M−63.11%

13.77% margin

Pre-tax income

$427M−64.77%

Net income

$305M−70.36%

7.59% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.8B−29.88%

Operating expenses

$1.7B+4.90%

SG&A $1.2B

Depreciation $445M

Other expense

$126M

Tax$122M−33.33%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 11:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.28· ±3.3% vs ±2.5% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±3.3%16 of 24×1.28

NFPjobs report±3.2%5 of 10×1.26

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%12 of 19×1.10

PPIproducer prices±2.5%4 of 10×1.00

CPIconsumer prices±2.5%6 of 10×0.99

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.9%12 of 19×0.76

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%7 of 12×0.55

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.76 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 7 '26 · confirmed	0.76	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	2.87	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	1.75	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod