What move does the options market price into USA Rare Earth's report?

Implied ±2.3%, either direction.

How often does USA Rare Earth move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

USARNasdaqMetal Mining

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

8.72

−0.14 · −1.58%

post 8.67 −0.52%

Closed19:42 ET

Open8.91Volume10.2MMkt cap$2.0BEPS-2.91

Day8.62 – 9.0612%52-wk8.83 – 32.800%

USAR

USA Rare Earth, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.3%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±8.3%·×0.28·cheap

8.518.91

straddle ±7.4%

spot 8.71exp Nov 6ATM strike 8.5ATM straddle 0.75IV 112%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.68%

vs ±9.2% implied · ×0.07

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+22.00%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

406 managers

Top fund weight

0.13%

USAR weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

USA Rare Earth (USAR) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

7 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.9%
avg realized: ±8.3%

May 14 '25May 14 '25confirmed±8.7%▲+6.41%×0.73

Aug 11 '25Aug 11 '25confirmed±12.4%▲+23.32%×1.88

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±7.9%▲+9.73%×1.23

Jan 26 '26Jan 26 '26confirmed±12.7%▲+7.87%×0.62

Q1 FY26Mar 30 '26confirmed±9.7%▼−7.72%×0.80

May 13 '26May 13 '26confirmed±8.5%▼−2.32%×0.27

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±9.2%▼−0.68%×0.07

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±9.2%▼−0.68%×0.07

May '26±8.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.59OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

8,185+47%Nov 62d13,988+60%

2,992+11%Nov 139d0.2910,229+88%0.29

28,277+5%Nov 2016d0.8533,234+5%0.85

2,475+7%Nov 2723d0.624,0100%0.62

839+22%Dec 430d0.611,380+10%0.61

3 later expiries

50,874−5%Dec 1844d0.8063,868+1%0.80

66,165+1%Jan 1572d0.54

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d8,185+47%13,988+60%0.59

Nov 139d2,992+11%10,229+88%0.29

Nov 2016d28,277+5%33,234+5%0.85

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.4%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−205.51%as filednet margin · revenue +2.16% QoQ

Revenue$6M+2.16%

Gross profit−$2M−27.19%−1593.40%

Operating income−$46M−795.64%−26.28%

Pre-tax income−$12M+81.83%

Net income−$12M−205.51%+82.42%

Cost of revenue$7M+32.40%

Operating expenses$45M+21.61%

Tax−$513,000+11.09%

Other income$34M+205.84%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.97· ±7.3% vs ±3.7% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±7.3%9 of 19×1.97

GDPgross domestic product±5.8%12 of 19×1.57

NFPjobs report±5.0%4 of 10×1.34

PPIproducer prices±4.8%5 of 10×1.31

CPROFcorporate profits±4.4%7 of 12×1.19

CPIconsumer prices±3.1%3 of 10×0.85

FOMCrate decision±2.7%8 of 23×0.73

Bar = avg |move| to ±8% · tick = ±3.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.05 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	-0.05	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 30 '26 · confirmed	-0.34	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-1.64	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod