What move does the options market price into Upstart's report?

Implied ±4.6%, either direction.

How often does Upstart move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UPSTNasdaqFinance Services

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

21.38

pre 21.70 +1.54%

Pre-market05:17 ETdelayed

Open21.58Volume9.3MMkt cap$2.1BP/E32.39EPS0.67

Day21.58 – 21.70100%52-wk20.60 – 52.103%

UPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±11.7%·×0.39·cheap

20.4022.34

straddle ±26.4%

spot 21.37exp Feb 19ATM strike 22.5ATM straddle 6.63IV 70%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 9

after close · in 97 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.28%

vs ±11.6% implied · ×0.02

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dAMZN · supplierBetterInvesting™ Magazine Update on Amazon.com and UnitedHealth Group

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−4.42%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

374 managers

Top fund weight

0.09%

UPST weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Upstart (UPST) is expected to report on Feb 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±14.4%
avg realized: ±11.7%

Feb 11 '25Feb 11 '25confirmed±18.3%▲+31.82%×1.74

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±17.0%▼−9.65%×0.57

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±15.7%▼−18.74%×1.20

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±14.3%▼−9.71%×0.68

Feb 10 '26Feb 10 '26confirmed±14.5%▼−15.04%×1.04

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±12.7%▼−7.92%×0.62

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±11.5%▼−0.40%×0.03

Q3 FY26Nov 3 '26confirmed±11.6%▲+0.28%×0.02

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q3 FY26±11.6%▲+0.28%×0.02

Q2 FY26±11.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.49OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

8,795+68%Nov 62d0.7311,968+114%0.73

3,179+234%Nov 139d1.901,671+101%1.90

4,658+117%Nov 2016d0.676,965+172%0.67

1,198+272%Nov 2723d1.30923+69%1.30

267—Dec 1137d10.2726—10.27

9,685+1%Dec 1844d0.4919,644+4%0.49

42,971+3%Jan 1572d0.6665,503+2%0.66

report · Feb 9 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 62d8,795+68%11,968+114%0.73

Nov 139d3,179+234%1,671+101%1.90

Nov 2016d4,658+117%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±26.4%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 1

AMZN±3.8%×0.14

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.05%as filednet margin · revenue +4.60% QoQ · +40.80% YoY

Revenue

$364M+4.60% QoQ

Gross profit

$364M+4.60% QoQ

100.00% margin

Operating income

$36M+145.91% QoQ

9.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$37M+117.12% QoQ

Net income

$37M+121.16% QoQ

10.05% margin

Operating expenses

$335M−4.44% QoQ

Marketing $102M

R&D $93M

SG&A $76M

Other operating $63M

Tax

$665,000+8.31% QoQ

Other income

$8M−59.71% QoQ

Revenue$364M+4.60%

Gross profit

$364M+4.60%

100.00% margin

Operating income

$36M+145.91%

9.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$37M+117.12%

Net income

$37M+121.16%

10.05% margin

Cost of revenue

Operating expenses

$335M−4.44%

Marketing $102M

R&D $93M

SG&A $76M

Other income$8M−59.71%

Tax$665,000+8.31%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 05:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.55· ±5.8% vs ±3.7% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±5.8%13 of 24×1.55

PPIproducer prices±4.5%3 of 10×1.21

NFPjobs report±4.0%2 of 10×1.08

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%11 of 19×0.76

CPROFcorporate profits±2.6%7 of 12×0.69

CPIconsumer prices±2.4%5 of 10×0.64

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.9%9 of 19×0.51

Bar = avg |move| to ±6% · tick = ±3.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.33 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 3 '26 · confirmed	0.33	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	0.16	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.07	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod