What move does the options market price into Upbound's report?

Implied ±19.4%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Upbound move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UPBDNasdaqServices-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC

Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

21.00

Closed17:34 ET

Open20.43Volume2.6MMkt cap$1.2BP/E10.82EPS1.94Div yield5.65%

Day19.81 – 21.00100%52-wk14.46 – 22.5381%

UPBD

Upbound Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±19.4%implied · straddle

16.6824.72

spot 20.70exp Mar 19ATM strike 20ATM straddle 4.73IV 48%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 18

before open · in 109 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+18.15%

vs ±12.3% implied · ×1.47

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

5dPYPL · supplierPayPal posts net income of $1,073 million, revenue $8,584 million for 3Q 2026
6dWHR · supplierStocks making the biggest moves after hours: Whirlpool, JetBlue, Celestica & more

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−3.90%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

256 managers

Top fund weight

0.04%

UPBD weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Upbound (UPBD) is expected to report on Feb 18 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.6%
avg realized: ±11.1%

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±6.8%▼−5.05%×0.75

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±11.3%▲+19.10%×1.69

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±8.6%▼−15.29%×1.79

Oct 30 '25Oct 30 '25confirmed±9.9%▼−16.31%×1.65

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±9.3%▲+6.32%×0.68

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±11.4%▲+4.33%×0.38

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±15.0%▼−3.96%×0.26

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±12.3%▲+18.15%×1.47

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±12.3%▲+18.15%×1.47

Q2 FY26±15.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.60OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

464+1%Nov 2019d0.60776+2%0.60

1,068−1%Dec 1847d0.651,6440%0.65

report · Feb 18 · before open · est.

2710%Mar 19138d4540%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d464+1%776+2%0.60

Dec 1847d1,068−1%1,6440%0.65

report · Feb 18 · before open · est.

Mar 19138d2710%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±19.4%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

PYPL±4.9%×0.25

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

2.99%as filednet margin · revenue −1.00% QoQ · −1.59% YoY

Revenue

$1.1B−1.00% QoQ

Gross profit

$580M−2.46% QoQ

50.62% margin

Operating income

$71M+31.19% QoQ

6.21% margin

Pre-tax income

$47M+59.71% QoQ

Net income

$34M+58.78% QoQ

2.99% margin

Cost of revenue

$566M−0.47% QoQ

Operating expenses

$362M−33.10% QoQ

SG&A $315M

Other operating $32M

Depreciation $14M

Other expense

$24M

Tax

$12M+62.31% QoQ

Revenue$1.1B−1.00%

Gross profit

$580M−2.46%

50.62% margin

Operating income

$71M+31.19%

6.21% margin

Pre-tax income

$47M+59.71%

Net income

$34M+58.78%

2.99% margin

Cost of revenue

$566M−0.47%

Operating expenses

$362M−33.10%

SG&A $315M

Other operating $32M

Depreciation $14M

Other expense

$24M

Tax$12M+62.31%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.44· ±2.7% vs ±1.9% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.7%12 of 19×1.44

PPIproducer prices±2.6%6 of 10×1.38

NFPjobs report±2.2%6 of 10×1.18

FOMCrate decision±2.1%8 of 24×1.11

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%10 of 19×0.96

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%3 of 10×0.86

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%7 of 12×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.58 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	0.58	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	0.37	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	0.61	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod