What move does the options market price into Ulta Beauty's report?

Implied ±6.2%, either direction.

How often does Ulta Beauty move more than the options market prices?

6 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ULTANasdaqRetail-Retail Stores, NEC

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

633.29

pre 636.00 +0.17%

Pre-market04:39 ETdelayed

Open636.00Volume569,460Mkt cap$27.3BP/E23.09EPS27.55

Day636.00 – 636.0050%52-wk443.60 – 714.9771%

ULTA

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±6.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.7%·×0.64·cheap

595.39674.39

straddle ±9.1%

spot 634.89exp Dec 4ATM strike 630ATM straddle 67.90IV 46%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 3

after close · in 29 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−4.18%

vs ±6.9% implied · ×0.61

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dTGT · customerBaked by Melissa enters Target with first at-home cupcake mix
1dEL · supplierEstee Lauder reports quarterly net sales $3,715 million, net earnings $233 million, EPS $ .64
18dELF · supplierE.l.f. Beauty CFO Mandy Fields on consumers, pricing and building a foundation in cosmetics

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.09%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,025 managers

Top fund weight

0.49%

ULTA weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is expected to report on Dec 3 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

6 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.7%
avg realized: ±9.7%

Dec 5 '24Dec 5 '24confirmed±6.5%▲+8.99%×1.39

Mar 13 '25Mar 13 '25confirmed±6.4%▲+13.68%×2.15

May 29 '25May 29 '25confirmed±6.2%▲+11.78%×1.89

Aug 28 '25Aug 28 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−7.14%×1.23

Q3 FY25Dec 4 '25confirmed±6.1%▲+12.65%×2.06

Mar 12 '26Mar 12 '26confirmed±6.4%▼−14.24%×2.24

Q1 FY26Jun 2 '26confirmed±9.4%▼−4.78%×0.51

Q2 FY26Aug 27 '26confirmed±6.9%▼−4.18%×0.61

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.9%▼−4.18%×0.61

Q1 FY26±9.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.13OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Dec 4 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2 nearer expiries

1,367+17%Nov 62d1.191,144+9%1.19

502+45%Nov 139d4.11122+3%4.11

4,213−1%Nov 2016d1.123,763+7%1.12

338+19%Nov 2723d3.38100+138%3.38

report · Dec 3 · after close · est.

2 later expiries

5,0260%Jan 1572d0.687,3810%0.68

1,5870%Mar 19135d0.46

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

2 nearer expiries

Nov 62d1,367+17%1,144+9%1.19

Nov 139d502+45%122+3%4.11

Nov 2016d4,213−1%3,763

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.1%

Funds 4

XLY±0.0%

FTC±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 1

EL±3.8%×0.41

Customers 1

TGT±2.8%×0.31

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

9.29%as filednet margin · revenue −4.05% QoQ · +8.87% YoY

Revenue

$3.0B−4.05% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.2B−6.36% QoQ

39.10% margin

Operating income

$380M−15.31% QoQ

12.51% margin

Pre-tax income

$376M−16.25% QoQ

Net income

$282M−17.17% QoQ

9.29% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.8B−2.51% QoQ

Operating expenses

$807M−1.47% QoQ

SG&A $803M

Other operating $5M

Other expense

$4M

Tax

$92M−14.02% QoQ

Revenue$3.0B−4.05%

Gross profit

$1.2B−6.36%

39.10% margin

Operating income

$380M−15.31%

12.51% margin

Pre-tax income

$376M−16.25%

Net income

$282M−17.17%

9.29% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.8B−2.51%

Operating expenses

$807M−1.47%

SG&A $803M

Other operating $5M

Other expense

$4M

Tax$92M−14.02%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 1 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

No trades yet today.

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×2.29· ±3.4% vs ±1.5% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.4%11 of 19×2.29

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%10 of 19×1.17

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%5 of 10×1.01

PPIproducer prices±1.5%3 of 10×0.98

NFPjobs report±1.4%7 of 10×0.94

FOMCrate decision±1.2%9 of 24×0.77

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%5 of 12×0.57

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 6.55 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 27 '26 · confirmed	6.55	—
Q1 FY26	Jun 2 '26 · confirmed	7.74	—
Q3 FY25	Dec 4 '25 · confirmed	5.14	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod