What move does the options market price into Turning Point Brands's report?

Implied ±12.9%, either direction.

How often does Turning Point Brands move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

TPBNYSETobacco Products

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

70.54

+3.25 · +4.83%

Regular session15:45 ET

Open69.44Volume274,938Mkt cap$1.3BP/E30.28Div yield0.47%

Day69.38 – 70.7287%52-wk54.17 – 146.4418%

TPB

Turning Point Brands, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.9%implied · straddle

58.5876.00

spot 67.29exp Nov 20ATM strike 65ATM straddle 10.25IV 89%

Nov 3 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Today

before open

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.56%

vs ±12.2% implied · ×0.21

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+36.62%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

229 managers

Top fund weight

0.05%

TPB weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Turning Point Brands (TPB) is expected to report on Nov 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.4%
avg realized: ±11.3%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±8.4%▼−2.82%×0.33

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed±12.3%▼−8.15%×0.66

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±9.3%▲+24.83%×2.66

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±7.6%▲+14.22%×1.87

Nov 5 '25Nov 5 '25confirmed±11.8%▲+6.28%×0.53

Q1 FY26Mar 2 '26confirmed±10.2%▼−20.79%×2.03

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±11.3%▲+11.03%×0.98

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±12.2%▲+2.56%×0.21

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±12.2%▲+2.56%×0.21

May '26±11.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.57OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

80+48%Nov 2016d141+27%

983−1%Dec 1844d0.204,9120%0.20

116+4%Jan 1572d0.25466+1%0.25

68+24%Apr 16163d0.14489+69%0.14

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d80+48%141+27%0.57

Dec 1844d983−1%4,9120%0.20

Jan 1572d116+4%466+1%0.25

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.9%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

7.21%as filednet margin · revenue +15.03% QoQ · +22.57% YoY

Revenue

$143M+15.03% QoQ

Gross profit

$94M+37.20% QoQ

65.55% margin

Operating income

$17M+33.88% QoQ

11.69% margin

Pre-tax income

$14M+25.62% QoQ

Net income

$10M−26.12% QoQ

7.21% margin

Cost of revenue

$49M−12.02% QoQ

Operating expenses

$77M+37.79% QoQ

Other expense

$3M

Tax

$4M+231.07% QoQ

Revenue$143M+15.03%

Gross profit

$94M+37.20%

65.55% margin

Operating income

$17M+33.88%

11.69% margin

Pre-tax income

$14M+25.62%

Net income

$10M−26.12%

7.21% margin

Cost of revenue

$49M−12.02%

Operating expenses

$77M+37.79%

Other expense

$3M

Tax$4M+231.07%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.64· ±2.9% vs ±1.8% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.9%9 of 24×1.64

CPROFcorporate profits±2.1%8 of 12×1.19

NFPjobs report±2.1%6 of 10×1.15

PPIproducer prices±2.0%3 of 10×1.13

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%14 of 19×1.03

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%13 of 19×0.86

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%4 of 10×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS — · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	—	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 2 '26 · confirmed	—	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod