What move does the options market price into TransMedics's report?

Implied ±11.8%, either direction.

How often does TransMedics move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

TMDXNasdaqElectromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

74.10

+6.76 · +10.04%

Regular session14:12 ET

Open69.67Volume706,843Mkt cap$2.3BP/E16.69EPS4.44

Day68.06 – 74.1699%52-wk60.11 – 156.0015%

TMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.7%·×1.22·rich

59.3775.31

straddle ±12.7%

spot 67.34exp Nov 6ATM strike 67ATM straddle 10.10IV 208%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.28%

vs ±15.7% implied · ×0.34

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+12.73%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

382 managers

Top fund weight

0.07%

TMDX weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

TransMedics (TMDX) reports on Nov 5 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.2%
avg realized: ±9.7%

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±20.5%▲+5.82%×0.28

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±15.9%▲+19.64%×1.23

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±15.6%▲+10.46%×0.67

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±16.3%▲+1.09%×0.07

Feb 24 '26Feb 24 '26confirmed±14.9%▼−4.30%×0.29

Q1 FY26Feb 27 '26confirmed±9.6%▲+7.94%×0.83

May 5 '26May 5 '26confirmed±12.8%▼−23.19%×1.82

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±15.7%▼−5.28%×0.34

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±15.7%▼−5.28%×0.34

May '26±12.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.15OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3,873+1178%Nov 62d3,357+1947%

173+68%Nov 139d1.13153+325%1.13

1,109+15%Nov 2016d0.801,385+117%0.80

2—Nov 2723d—0——

19—Dec 430d0.9021—0.90

4 later expiries

0—Dec 1137d—0——

4,653+23%Dec 1844d0.70

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d3,873+1178%3,357+1947%1.15

Nov 139d173+68%153+325%1.13

Nov 2016d1,109+15%1,385+117%0.80

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.7%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

7.73%as filednet margin · revenue +9.21% QoQ · +20.70% YoY

Revenue

$190M+9.21% QoQ

Gross profit

$113M+11.90% QoQ

59.59% margin

Operating income

$24M+78.51% QoQ

12.50% margin

Pre-tax income

$19M+128.70% QoQ

Net income

$15M+100.71% QoQ

7.73% margin

Cost of revenue

$77M+5.47% QoQ

Operating expenses

$89M+1.82% QoQ

SG&A $58M

R&D $32M

Other expense

$4M

Tax

$5M+303.68% QoQ

Revenue$190M+9.21%

Gross profit

$113M+11.90%

59.59% margin

Operating income

$24M+78.51%

12.50% margin

Pre-tax income

$19M+128.70%

Net income

$15M+100.71%

7.73% margin

Cost of revenue

$77M+5.47%

Operating expenses

$89M+1.82%

SG&A $58M

R&D $32M

Other expense

$4M

Tax$5M+303.68%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 14:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.43· ±4.0% vs ±2.8% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±4.0%12 of 24×1.43

NFPjobs report±3.4%5 of 10×1.24

PPIproducer prices±2.9%6 of 11×1.06

CPIconsumer prices±2.4%4 of 11×0.88

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%10 of 20×0.75

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%10 of 20×0.55

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%4 of 12×0.47

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.41 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	0.41	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 27 '26 · confirmed	0.20	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod