What move does the options market price into Target Hospitality's report?

Implied ±10.1%, either direction.

How often does Target Hospitality move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

THNasdaqHotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

10.55

−0.74 · −6.57%

Regular session13:10 ET

Open11.01Volume7.2MMkt cap$1.1BEPS-0.37

Day10.26 – 11.4824%52-wk5.97 – 21.7629%

Target Hospitality Corp.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.1%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±10.0%·×1.01·fair

10.1512.43

straddle ±18.4%

spot 11.29exp Nov 20ATM strike 11ATM straddle 2.45IV 132%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structurethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

before open · in 4 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.67%

vs ±11.1% implied · ×0.24

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

28.00%

of TH revenue · Undisclosed direct customer (28% of total revenue)

customerTH 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+13.65%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

172 managers

Top fund weight

0.03%

TH weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Target Hospitality (TH) reports on Nov 9 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.1%
avg realized: ±10.0%

Nov 12 '24Nov 12 '24confirmed±11.4%▲+6.84%×0.60

Mar 26 '25Mar 26 '25confirmed±12.4%▲+6.36%×0.51

May 19 '25May 19 '25confirmed±13.1%▲+5.07%×0.39

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±10.2%▲+12.05%×1.19

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±10.7%▼−15.54%×1.45

Q1 FY26Mar 11 '26confirmed±10.9%▲+13.78%×1.26

May 11 '26May 11 '26confirmed±9.1%▲+17.94%×1.98

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±11.1%▼−2.67%×0.24

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±11.1%▼−2.67%×0.24

May '26±9.1%▲+17.94%×1.98

Q1 FY26±10.9%▲+13.78%×1.26

Q3 FY25±10.7%▼−15.54%×1.45

Aug '25±10.2%▲+12.05%×1.19

May '25±13.1%▲+5.07%×0.39

2 older reports

Mar '25±12.4%▲+6.36%×0.51

Nov '24±11.4%▲+6.84%×0.60

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.14OI · 4 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

530%Nov 2015d3760%

0—Dec 1843d0.0060%0.00

809−1%Jan 1571d0.0712,148+1%0.07

3600%Apr 16162d1.57230+5%1.57

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d530%3760%0.14

Dec 1843d0—60%0.00

Jan 1571d809−1%12,148+1%0.07

Apr 16162d3600%230+5%1.57

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±18.4%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−10.51%as filednet margin · revenue +17.41% QoQ · +38.71% YoY

Revenue$85M+17.41%

Gross profit$16M18.49%+129.51%

Operating income−$7M−8.77%+47.66%

Pre-tax income−$9M+44.08%

Net income−$9M−10.51%+30.71%

Cost of revenue$70M+5.71%

Operating expenses$23M+9.84%

Tax$473,000+120.99%

Other expense−$1M−13.45%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 13:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.49· ±3.3% vs ±2.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.3%5 of 10×1.49

NFPjobs report±3.3%4 of 10×1.45

FOMCrate decision±2.6%12 of 24×1.13

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%10 of 19×1.06

CPROFcorporate profits±2.3%8 of 12×1.04

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.0%10 of 19×0.91

PPIproducer prices±1.4%6 of 10×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.09 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	-0.09	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 11 '26 · confirmed	-0.13	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.01	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod