What move does the options market price into Stagwell's report?

Implied ±29.2%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Stagwell move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

STGWNasdaqServices-Advertising Agencies

Stagwell Inc (STGW) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

11.31

+0.55 · +5.09%

Regular session12:25 ET

Open10.81Volume3.0MMkt cap$2.7BP/E275.61

Day10.81 – 11.31100%52-wk4.29 – 11.06100%

STGW

Stagwell Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±29.2%implied · straddle

7.6113.91

spot 10.76exp Mar 19ATM strike 11ATM straddle 3.70IV 71%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 25

before open · in 113 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+12.68%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.93%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

180 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

STGW weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Stagwell (STGW) is expected to report on Feb 25 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.9%
avg realized: ±10.9%

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±13.6%▼−5.22%×0.38

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±25.7%▼−14.03%×0.55

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±7.8%▲+11.05%×1.42

Nov 6 '25Nov 6 '25confirmed±15.1%▲+16.84%×1.12

Q1 FY26Mar 10 '26confirmed±14.4%▲+17.56%×1.22

Apr 30 '26Apr 30 '26confirmed±17.3%▼−6.28%×0.36

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±17.6%▲+5.07%×0.29

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed—▲+12.68%—

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q3 FY26—▲+12.68%—

Q2 FY26±17.6%+5.07%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.02OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

9+29%Nov 2016d0.1090+3%0.10

9,0740%Dec 1844d0.1464,3950%0.14

report · Feb 25 · before open · est.

2210%Mar 19135d10,5620%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d9+29%90+3%0.10

Dec 1844d9,0740%64,3950%0.14

report · Feb 25 · before open · est.

Mar 19135d2210%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±29.2%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

2.25%as filednet margin · revenue +3.78% QoQ · +9.83% YoY

Revenue

$816M+3.78% QoQ

Gross profit

$304M+13.03% QoQ

37.29% margin

Operating income

$48M+316.24% QoQ

5.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$29M+412.08% QoQ

Net income

$18M+311.42% QoQ

2.25% margin

Cost of revenue

$512M−1.04% QoQ

Operating expenses

$256M−0.55% QoQ

SG&A $207M

Depreciation $48M

Other expense

$19M

Tax

$11M+3227.01% QoQ

Revenue$816M+3.78%

Gross profit

$304M+13.03%

37.29% margin

Operating income

$48M+316.24%

5.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$29M+412.08%

Net income

$18M+311.42%

2.25% margin

Cost of revenue

$512M−1.04%

Operating expenses

$256M−0.55%

SG&A $207M

Depreciation $48M

Other expense

$19M

Tax$11M+3227.01%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 12:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.27· ±2.9% vs ±2.3% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.9%8 of 19×1.27

FOMCrate decision±2.4%11 of 24×1.04

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%4 of 19×1.04

NFPjobs report±2.0%4 of 10×0.85

CPIconsumer prices±1.7%4 of 10×0.73

CPROFcorporate profits±1.7%3 of 12×0.73

PPIproducer prices±1.0%5 of 10×0.45

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS — · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	—	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	—	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 10 '26 · confirmed	—	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod