What move does the options market price into Sable Offshore's report?

Implied ±9.5%, either direction.

How often does Sable Offshore move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

SOCNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

2.32

−0.16 · −6.46%

Regular session10:39 ET

Open2.50Volume12.0MMkt cap$472.0M

Day2.32 – 2.503%52-wk2.41 – 19.250%

SOC

Sable Offshore Corp.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.0%·×1.06·fair

2.242.72

straddle ±15.6%

spot 2.48exp Nov 13ATM strike 2.5ATM straddle 0.45IV 138%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 12

after close · in 8 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−8.64%

vs ±12.3% implied · ×0.70

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+19.50%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

255 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

SOC weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Sable Offshore (SOC) is expected to report on Nov 12 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.9%
avg realized: ±9.0%

Nov 14 '24Nov 14 '24confirmed±8.8%▼−8.18%×0.93

Mar 17 '25Mar 17 '25confirmed±8.1%▲+0.95%×0.12

May 9 '25May 9 '25confirmed±14.0%▲+14.87%×1.06

Aug 12 '25Aug 12 '25confirmed±7.6%▼−2.10%×0.27

Q3 FY25Nov 13 '25confirmed±12.9%▼−28.86%×2.23

Q1 FY26Feb 27 '26confirmed±15.3%▲+4.24%×0.28

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±7.8%▼−4.33%×0.55

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±12.3%▼−8.64%×0.70

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q2 FY26±12.3%▼−8.64%×0.70

May '26±7.8%▼−4.33%×0.55

Q1 FY26±15.3%▲+4.24%×0.28

Q3 FY25±12.9%▼−28.86%×2.23

Aug '25±7.6%▼−2.10%×0.27

May '25±14.0%▲+14.87%×1.06

2 older reports

Mar '25±8.1%▲+0.95%×0.12

Nov '24±8.8%▼−8.18%×0.93

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 close

0.25OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

517+18%Nov 62d0.173,021+14%0.17

report · Nov 12 · after close · est.

381+19%Nov 139d1,502+176%

2,158+9%Nov 2016d0.832,608+22%0.83

193—Nov 2723d0.20964—0.20

3 later expiries

269—Dec 1844d0.87310—0.87

22,698+2%Jan 1572d0.12187,286+1%0.12

1,160+9%Apr 16163d0.148,082+7%0.14

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d517+18%3,021+14%0.17

report · Nov 12 · after close · est.

Nov 139d381+19%1,502+176%0.25

Nov 2016d2,158+9%2,608+22%0.83

Nov 2723d193—964—0.20

3 later expiries

Dec 1844d269—310—0.87

Jan 1572d22,698+2%187,286+1%0.12

Apr 16163d1,160+9%8,082+7%0.14

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.6%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−46.83%as filednet margin · revenue +10688.75% QoQ

Revenue$137M+10688.75%

Gross profit$137M100.00%+305.39%

Operating income−$67M−48.78%+43.67%

Pre-tax income−$37M+81.10%

Net income−$64M−46.83%+67.41%

Cost of revenue$0−100.00%

Operating expenses$204M+292.40%

Tax$27M—

Other income$30M+137.89%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 10:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×2.29· ±10.3% vs ±4.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±10.3%7 of 10×2.29

CPROFcorporate profits±6.7%5 of 12×1.48

GDPgross domestic product±5.3%9 of 19×1.17

PPIproducer prices±4.4%2 of 10×0.97

NFPjobs report±3.7%6 of 10×0.81

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.6%11 of 19×0.81

FOMCrate decision±3.2%12 of 21×0.71

Bar = avg |move| to ±11% · tick = ±4.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.42 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	-0.42	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 27 '26 · confirmed	-1.37	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 13 '25 · confirmed	-1.11	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod