What move does the options market price into Shopify's report?

Implied ±10.4%, either direction.

SHOPNasdaqServices-Prepackaged Software

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

157.17

Closed17:11 ET

Open162.54Volume10.5MMkt cap$204.4BP/E105.48EPS1.49

Day154.52 – 163.8628%52-wk94.00 – 180.8873%

SHOP

Shopify Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.4%implied · report alone

141.07173.91

straddle ±11.9%

spot 157.49exp Nov 6ATM strike 157.5ATM straddle 22.05IV 126%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 3

before open · in 3 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+16.98%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

15hMETA · customerMeta outlook revised downward by S&P on cash flow and capex concerns
20hAXP · supplierAmerican Express issues $1,500,000,000 5.447% and $1,150,000,000 5.817% notes; $350,000,000 floating
1dV · supplierSecret SantAI? Visa Survey Finds Americans Quietly Turning to AI for Holiday Shopping Help

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.49%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

1,725 managers

Top fund weight

5.68%

SHOP weight · EWC

N-PORTAug 31 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Shopify (SHOP) reports on Nov 3 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed—▲+16.98%—

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26—▲+16.98%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 23 close

1.05OI · 9 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,789+24%Nov 66d4,547+33%

3,447−1%Nov 1313d2.771,246+43%2.77

38,961+35%Nov 2020d1.1733,430+28%1.17

393—Nov 2727d1.05374—1.05

9—Dec 434d0.4719—0.47

4 later expiries

31,221+4%Dec 1848d0.4372,902+1%0.43

50,718+2%Jan 1576d1.11

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d4,789+24%4,547+33%1.05

Nov 1313d3,447−1%1,246+43%2.77

Nov 2020d38,961+35%33,430+28%1.17

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.9%

Funds 4

EWC±0.7%

ARKK±0.5%

QQQ±0.1%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

41.92%as filednet margin · revenue +13.03% QoQ · +33.69% YoY

Revenue

$3.6B+13.03% QoQ

Service $2.8B

Subscription and Circulation $802M

Gross profit

$1.7B+10.48% QoQ

47.67% margin

Operating income

$488M+27.75% QoQ

13.62% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.8B+379.97% QoQ

Net income

$1.5B+358.52% QoQ

41.92% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.9B+15.46% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.2B+4.81% QoQ

Marketing $498M

R&D $445M

Other operating $141M

Other operating $136M

Tax

$273M+615.09% QoQ

Other income

$1.3B+226.67% QoQ

Revenue$3.6B+13.03%

Service $2.8B · Subscription and Circulation $802M

Gross profit

$1.7B+10.48%

47.67% margin

Operating income

$488M+27.75%

13.62% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.8B+379.97%

Net income

$1.5B+358.52%

41.92% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.9B+15.46%

Operating expenses

$1.2B+4.81%

Marketing $498M

R&D $445M

Other operating $141M

Other income$1.3B+226.67%

Tax$273M+615.09%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.54· ±3.8% vs ±2.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.8%3 of 10×1.54

NFPjobs report±2.8%3 of 10×1.13

FOMCrate decision±2.5%15 of 24×1.02

CPROFcorporate profits±2.3%4 of 12×0.92

GDPgross domestic product±2.1%6 of 19×0.86

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%5 of 19×0.86

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%5 of 10×0.62

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.16 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	1.16	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.45	—
Q3 FY25	—	0.20	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod