What move does the options market price into SES AI's report?

Implied ±25.3%, either direction.

SESNYSEMiscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies

SES AI Corp (SES) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

0.79

−0.12 · −12.88%

post 0.79 −0.11%

Closed17:26 ET

Open0.89Volume21.4MMkt cap$293.5MEPS-0.20

Day0.74 – 0.8931%52-wk0.49 – 2.6214%

SES

SES AI Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±25.3%implied · report alone

0.590.99

straddle ±40.3%

spot 0.79exp Nov 20ATM strike 1ATM straddle 0.37IV 198%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 5 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.15%

vs ±20.2% implied · ×0.11

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 11 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

48.00%

of SES revenue · Undisclosed customer

customerSES 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+97.47%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

133 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

SES weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

SES AI (SES) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 11 '26confirmed±20.2%▲+2.15%×0.11

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±20.2%▲+2.15%×0.11

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 6 expiries · Oct 23 close

0.47OI · 6 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,485+319%Nov 2021d3,151+5%

8850%Dec 1849d0.263,465+5%0.26

1,9540%Jan 1577d0.1117,8930%0.11

58+4%Feb 19112d0.069170%0.06

149+1%Mar 19140d0.062,390+1%0.06

46—Apr 16168d0.15307—0.15

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2021d1,485+319%3,151+5%0.47

Dec 1849d8850%3,465+5%0.26

Jan 1577d1,9540%17,8930%0.11

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±40.3%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−353.02%as filednet margin · revenue −24.42% QoQ · +43.80% YoY

Revenue$5M−24.42%

Gross profit$1M22.61%−5.60%

Operating income−$19M−378.47%−7.43%

Pre-tax income−$18M−52.11%

Net income−$18M−353.02%−48.00%

Cost of revenue$4M−28.58%

Operating expenses$20M+6.60%

Tax$132,000−68.12%

Other income$1M−76.99%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPROF ×1.07· ±5.9% vs ±5.5% · 12 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPROFcorporate profits±5.9%5 of 12×1.07

GDPgross domestic product±5.9%7 of 19×1.06

PCEpersonal income & outlays±5.3%10 of 19×0.97

NFPjobs report±5.3%5 of 10×0.97

FOMCrate decision±4.7%11 of 24×0.85

PPIproducer prices±4.4%6 of 11×0.81

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%7 of 11×0.48

Bar = avg |move| to ±6% · tick = ±5.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±5.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.05 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 11 '26 · confirmed	-0.05	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.04	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod