What move does the options market price into Serve Robotics's report?

Implied ±13.0%, either direction.

How often does Serve Robotics move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

SERVNasdaqGeneral Industrial Machinery & Equipment, NEC

Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

2.59

−0.25 · −8.81%

post 2.62 +1.17%

Closed19:31 ET

Open2.85Volume3.6MMkt cap$225.4MEPS-2.49

Day2.56 – 2.8521%52-wk2.53 – 16.081%

SERV

Serve Robotics Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±13.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.0%·×1.45·rich

2.262.94

straddle ±15.2%

spot 2.60exp Nov 13ATM strike 2.5ATM straddle 0.46IV 114%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 11

after close · in 11 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−10.48%

vs ±9.2% implied · ×1.14

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

30mNVDA · supplierNvidia’s Megaspeed ties show potential blind spots in the U.S. effort to block China from accessing advanced chips
2dUBER · customerFTC demands Walmart, Uber, Delta and others hand over data on personalized pricing: Reuters

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+29.89%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

200 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

SERV weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Serve Robotics (SERV) is expected to report on Nov 11 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.9%
avg realized: ±9.0%

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.06OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,5730%Nov 66d0.673,827+4%0.67

report · Nov 11 · after close · est.

2,014+20%Nov 1313d1,909+13%

22,2460%Nov 2020d0.8127,393+2%0.81

796+11%Nov 2727d2.15371+12%2.15

5 later expiries

55+10%Dec 434d0.6387+19%0.63

5,927−1%Dec 1848d0.66

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d2,5730%3,827+4%0.67

report · Nov 11 · after close · est.

Nov 1313d2,014+20%1,909+13%1.06

Nov 2020d22,2460%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.2%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

NVDA±2.2%×0.14

Customers 1

UBER±1.6%×0.10

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−1980.45%as filednet margin · revenue +8.51% QoQ · +404.36% YoY

Revenue$3M+8.51%

Gross profit−$9M−271.12%+2.47%

Operating income−$66M−2040.30%−27.58%

Pre-tax income−$64M−29.23%

Net income−$64M−1980.45%−30.86%

Cost of revenue$12M+0.27%

Operating expenses$57M+33.91%

Tax−$36,200+94.41%

Other income$2M−10.70%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×0.93· ±5.6% vs ±6.0% · 21 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±5.6%8 of 21×0.93

NFPjobs report±4.6%1 of 10×0.77

GDPgross domestic product±4.2%7 of 19×0.70

PPIproducer prices±4.0%4 of 10×0.67

CPROFcorporate profits±3.8%4 of 12×0.62

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.5%10 of 19×0.59

CPIconsumer prices±2.6%8 of 10×0.44

Bar = avg |move| to ±7% · tick = ±6.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±6.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.80 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.80	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 11 '26 · confirmed	-0.65	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 12 '25 · confirmed	-0.54	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod