What move does the options market price into Transocean's report?

Implied ±5.0%, either direction.

How often does Transocean move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RIGNYSEDrilling Oil & Gas Wells

Transocean Ltd. (RIG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

6.94

+0.25 · +3.74%

post 6.93 −0.14%

Closed18:46 ET

Open6.73Volume47.7MMkt cap$7.8BEPS-1.68

Day6.73 – 7.0075%52-wk3.68 – 7.6682%

RIG

Transocean Ltd.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.0%·×1.25·rich

6.597.29

straddle ±6.8%

spot 6.94exp Nov 6ATM strike 7ATM straddle 0.55IV 71%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 2

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.39%

vs ±5.1% implied · ×0.08

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dCVX · customerChevron and Exxon hit all-time highs as refining profits soar in reaction to Iran and Ukraine wars
1dBP · customerBP underlying RC profit $8,458 million, operating cash flow $14,829 million, net debt $13,870 million
2dPBR · customerPetrobras confirms oil discovery in Morpho well in ultra-deep waters off Amapá

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.10%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

545 managers

Top fund weight

1.11%

RIG weight · GLO

N-PORTJul 31 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Transocean (RIG) is expected to report on Nov 2 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.3%
avg realized: ±4.0%

Oct 30 '24Oct 30 '24confirmed±6.6%▲+9.05%×1.37

Feb 18 '25Feb 18 '25confirmed±7.8%▲+0.57%×0.07

Apr 28 '25Apr 28 '25confirmed±11.6%▼−4.76%×0.41

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±7.3%▲+3.56%×0.49

Q3 FY25Oct 29 '25confirmed±7.5%▲+2.09%×0.28

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±6.2%▲+2.52%×0.41

Q1 FY26May 4 '26confirmed±6.5%▼−9.16%×1.41

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±5.1%▲+0.39%×0.08

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±5.1%▲+0.39%×0.08

Q1 FY26±6.5%▼−9.16%×1.41

Feb '26±6.2%▲+2.52%×0.41

Q3 FY25±7.5%▲+2.09%×0.28

Aug '25±7.3%▲+3.56%×0.49

Apr '25±11.6%▼−4.76%×0.41

2 older reports

Feb '25±7.8%▲+0.57%×0.07

Oct '24±6.6%▲+9.05%×1.37

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.18OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

10,842+7%Nov 65d9,191+14%

3,637+1%Nov 1312d0.804,532+6%0.80

17,8150%Nov 2019d0.3747,5700%0.37

1,419+9360%Nov 2726d0.443,226+1589%0.44

5240%Dec 433d1.13463+6%1.13

5 later expiries

0—Dec 1140d0.0055—0.00

72,5440%Dec 1847d0.48151,7450%0.48

253,8280%Jan 1575d1.07237,871+9%1.07

6,013+1%Feb 19110d0.2030,6380%0.20

8,4430%Mar 19138d0.4120,8130%0.41

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d10,842+7%9,191+14%1.18

Nov 1312d3,637+1%4,532+6%0.80

Nov 2019d17,8150%47,5700%0.37

Nov 2726d1,419+9360%3,226+1589%0.44

Dec 433d5240%463+6%1.13

5 later expiries

Dec 1140d0—55—0.00

Dec 1847d72,5440%151,7450%0.48

Jan 1575d253,8280%237,871+9%1.07

Feb 19110d6,013+1%30,6380%0.20

Mar 19138d8,4430%20,8130%0.41

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±6.8%

Funds 4

GLO±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Customers 4

BP±1.9%×0.28

EQNR±1.8%×0.27

PBR±1.7%×0.25

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

17.60%as filednet margin · revenue −10.64% QoQ · −2.23% YoY

Revenue

$966M−10.64% QoQ

Gross profit

$358M−24.63% QoQ

37.06% margin

Operating income

$152M−47.04% QoQ

15.73% margin

Pre-tax income

$184M+982.35% QoQ

Net income

$170M+139.44% QoQ

17.60% margin

Cost of revenue

$608M+0.33% QoQ

Operating expenses

$206M+9.57% QoQ

Depreciation $148M

SG&A $56M

Other operating $2M

Tax

$14M+125.93% QoQ

Other income

$32M+111.85% QoQ

Revenue$966M−10.64%

Gross profit

$358M−24.63%

37.06% margin

Operating income

$152M−47.04%

15.73% margin

Pre-tax income

$184M+982.35%

Net income

$170M+139.44%

17.60% margin

Cost of revenue

$608M+0.33%

Operating expenses

$206M+9.57%

Depreciation $148M

SG&A $56M

Other operating $2M

Other income$32M+111.85%

Tax$14M+125.93%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 18:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.63· ±4.1% vs ±2.5% · 9 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.1%4 of 9×1.63

CPROFcorporate profits±2.6%7 of 12×1.01

FOMCrate decision±2.5%8 of 24×0.98

GDPgross domestic product±2.5%11 of 19×0.97

PPIproducer prices±2.2%7 of 10×0.86

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%4 of 10×0.79

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.0%10 of 19×0.77

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.04 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	0.04	—
Q1 FY26	May 4 '26 · confirmed	0.06	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 29 '25 · confirmed	-2.00	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod