What move does the options market price into FreightCar America's report?

Implied ±39.9%, either direction · provisional.

RAILNasdaqRailroad Equipment

FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

4.18

+0.03 · +0.72%

Regular session10:15 ET

Open4.18Volume267,470Mkt cap$136.1MEPS-0.41

Day4.18 – 4.1850%52-wk3.85 – 14.903%

RAIL

FreightCar America, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±39.9%implied · straddle

2.495.81

spot 4.15exp Mar 19ATM strike 5ATM straddle 1.95IV 85%

Nov 5 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Mar 15

after close · in 129 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−31.37%

vs ±18.7% implied · ×1.68

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 19 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

26.00%

of RAIL revenue · Undisclosed top customer (2025 - 26% of total revenue)

customerRAIL 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+32.43%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

85 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

RAIL weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

FreightCar America (RAIL) is expected to report on Mar 15 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 3 '26confirmed±13.0%▲+3.64%×0.28

Oct 19 '26Oct 19 '26confirmed±18.7%▼−31.37%×1.68

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Oct '26±18.7%▼−31.37%×1.68

Q2 FY26±13.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 close

4.27OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

327+227%Nov 2014d1.16281+4583%1.16

1,854−7%Dec 1842d1.221,520+58%1.22

report · Mar 15 · after close · est.

2,7860%Mar 19133d653+64%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d327+227%281+4583%1.16

Dec 1842d1,854−7%1,520+58%1.22

report · Mar 15 · after close · est.

Mar 19133d2,7860%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±39.9%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−26.61%as filednet margin · revenue +75.93% QoQ · −4.62% YoY

Revenue$113M+75.93%

Gross profit$6M5.45%−42.91%

Operating income−$4M−3.80%−623.23%

Pre-tax income−$32M−171.58%

Net income−$30M−26.61%−172.28%

Cost of revenue$107M+99.95%

Operating expenses$10M−8.22%

Tax−$2M−163.74%

Other expense−$28M−161.30%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 5 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 10:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.41· ±4.5% vs ±3.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±4.5%12 of 24×1.41

CPROFcorporate profits±4.0%8 of 12×1.26

GDPgross domestic product±3.2%10 of 20×1.03

CPIconsumer prices±2.8%4 of 11×0.90

NFPjobs report±2.4%4 of 10×0.77

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%9 of 20×0.67

PPIproducer prices±2.1%6 of 11×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.94 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 3 '26 · confirmed	-0.94	—
Q1 FY26	—	1.15	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod