What move does the options market price into Papa Johns International's report?

Implied ±22.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Papa Johns International move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PZZANasdaqRetail-Eating Places

Papa Johns International Inc (PZZA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

19.77

−0.22 · −1.11%

Regular session15:31 ET

Open19.98Volume2.3MMkt cap$658.1MP/E24.71EPS0.80Div yield9.20%

Day18.28 – 20.1281%52-wk17.70 – 47.017%

PZZA

Papa Johns International Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±22.5%implied · straddle

15.4824.50

spot 19.99exp Mar 19ATM strike 20ATM straddle 5.30IV 56%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 25

before open · in 112 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 5

before open

confirmedQ3 FY26Nov 4 close

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+13.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

262 managers

Top fund weight

0.04%

PZZA weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Papa Johns International (PZZA) is expected to report on Feb 25 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.0%
avg realized: ±7.6%

Jan 13 '25Jan 13 '25confirmed±5.7%▲+2.42%×0.43

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±10.7%▲+1.41%×0.13

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±8.0%▲+15.92%×2.00

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±7.6%▲+8.59%×1.12

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±13.5%▲+3.78%×0.28

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−8.63%×0.82

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±10.2%▼−2.75%×0.27

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±14.1%▼−17.18%×1.22

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.1%▼−17.18%×1.22

May '26±10.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 4 close

1.23OI · 5 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3,194+5%Nov 2015d0.1916,521−3%0.19

7,4930%Dec 1843d0.5713,042+4%0.57

2,260+2%Jan 1571d0.239,714+9%0.23

report · Feb 25 · before open · est.

939+69%Mar 19134d761+45%

391—Apr 16162d1.65237—1.65

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d3,194+5%16,521−3%0.19

Dec 1843d7,4930%13,042+4%0.57

Jan 1571d2,260+2%9,714+9%0.23

report · Feb 25 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±22.5%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

0.72%as filednet margin · revenue −5.71% QoQ · −10.49% YoY

Revenue

$455M−5.71% QoQ

Gross profit

$126M−11.95% QoQ

27.76% margin

Operating income

$14M−38.62% QoQ

3.13% margin

Pre-tax income

$5M−64.62% QoQ

Net income

$3M−62.29% QoQ

0.72% margin

Cost of revenue

$329M−3.08% QoQ

Operating expenses

$112M−6.80% QoQ

SG&A $56M

Marketing $37M

Depreciation $19M

Other expense

$9M

Tax

$2M−68.70% QoQ

Revenue$455M−5.71%

Gross profit

$126M−11.95%

27.76% margin

Operating income

$14M−38.62%

3.13% margin

Pre-tax income

$5M−64.62%

Net income

$3M−62.29%

0.72% margin

Cost of revenue

$329M−3.08%

Operating expenses

$112M−6.80%

SG&A $56M

Marketing $37M

Depreciation $19M

Other expense

$9M

Tax$2M−68.70%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 27 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.46· ±3.0% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.0%3 of 10×1.46

FOMCrate decision±2.4%8 of 24×1.17

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%10 of 19×1.03

GDPgross domestic product±1.9%12 of 19×0.89

PPIproducer prices±1.8%4 of 10×0.88

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%7 of 12×0.76

NFPjobs report±1.5%1 of 10×0.72

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.09 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	0.09	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.24	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	0.21	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	0.13	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod