What move does the options market price into Penske Automotive's report?

Implied ±1.6%, either direction · provisional.

PAGNYSERetail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

212.21

−0.13 · −0.06%

post 212.21 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open212.60Volume405,015Mkt cap$13.9BP/E15.48EPS13.71Div yield2.66%

Day212.01 – 212.6035%52-wk138.00 – 225.5185%

PAG

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±1.6%implied · straddle

208.70215.54

spot 212.12exp Feb 19ATM strike 210ATM straddle 4.03IV 3%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 10

before open · in 102 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.09%

vs ±1.5% implied · ×0.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.13%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

394 managers

Top fund weight

0.66%

PAG weight · EVNT

N-PORTAug 31 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Penske Automotive (PAG) is expected to report on Feb 10 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▲+1.56%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±1.5%▼−0.09%×0.06

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q3 FY26±1.5%▼−0.09%×0.06

Q2 FY26—▲+1.56%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.05OI · 3 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

12,3110%Nov 2020d4.222,9140%4.22

140%Dec 1848d0.45310%0.45

report · Feb 10 · before open · est.

1920%Feb 19111d3,8740%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d12,3110%2,9140%4.22

Dec 1848d140%310%0.45

report · Feb 10 · before open · est.

Feb 19111d1920%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±1.6%

Funds 4

EVNT±0.0%

SCHD±0.0%

MDY±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

2.63%as filednet margin · revenue −1.14% QoQ · +9.36% YoY

Revenue

$8.4B−1.14% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.3B−2.42% QoQ

15.73% margin

Operating income

$303M−10.22% QoQ

3.60% margin

Pre-tax income

$302M−14.64% QoQ

Net income

$221M−15.31% QoQ

2.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.1B−0.90% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.0B+0.16% QoQ

SG&A $976M

Depreciation $46M

Other expense

$1M

Tax

$81M−12.74% QoQ

Revenue$8.4B−1.14%

Gross profit

$1.3B−2.42%

15.73% margin

Operating income

$303M−10.22%

3.60% margin

Pre-tax income

$302M−14.64%

Net income

$221M−15.31%

2.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.1B−0.90%

Operating expenses

$1.0B+0.16%

SG&A $976M

Depreciation $46M

Other expense

$1M

Tax$81M−12.74%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.73· ±2.1% vs ±1.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.1%10 of 24×1.73

PPIproducer prices±1.7%6 of 11×1.42

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%2 of 12×0.93

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%3 of 19×0.88

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%8 of 19×0.82

NFPjobs report±1.0%7 of 10×0.82

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%3 of 11×0.82

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.36 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	3.36	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	3.96	—
Q1 FY26	—	3.56	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod