What move does the options market price into Octave Specialty's report?

Implied ±18.8%, either direction.

OSGNYSESurety Insurance

Octave Specialty Group Inc (OSG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

5.02

pre 5.02 −3.50%

Pre-market16:00 ETdelayed

Open5.16Volume334,463Mkt cap$225.7MEPS-3.80

Day5.02 – 5.190%52-wk3.88 – 10.3818%

OSG

Octave Specialty Group Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±18.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±17.4%·×1.08·fair

4.075.95

straddle ±19.1%

spot 5.01exp Nov 20ATM strike 5ATM straddle 1.12IV 131%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

after close · in 5 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−12.90%

vs ±14.7% implied · ×0.88

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.93%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

147 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

OSG weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Octave Specialty (OSG) is expected to report on Nov 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Nov 12 '24Nov 12 '24confirmed—▲+10.17%—

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed—▼−10.81%—

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed—▼−19.76%—

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed—▼−16.28%—

Q2 FY25Nov 10 '25confirmed—▲+16.00%—

Feb 23 '26Feb 23 '26confirmed±14.8%▼−9.75%×0.66

Q1 FY26May 6 '26confirmed±21.1%▲+43.36%×2.05

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±14.7%▼−12.90%×0.88

quarterimplied−45%0+45%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.7%▼−12.90%×0.88

Q1 FY26±21.1%▲+43.36%×2.05

Feb '26±14.8%▼−9.75%×0.66

Q2 FY25—▲+16.00%—

Aug '25—▼−16.28%—

May '25—▼−19.76%—

2 older reports

Feb '25—▼−10.81%—

Nov '24—▲+10.17%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.69OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

8500%Nov 2016d1,235+7%

0—Dec 1844d0.00110—0.00

4280%Jan 1572d0.281,533−10%0.28

40%Feb 19107d0.009130%0.00

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d8500%1,235+7%0.69

Dec 1844d0—110—0.00

Jan 1572d4280%1,533−10%0.28

Feb 19107d40%9130%0.00

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±19.1%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

0.00%as filednet margin · revenue −61.51% QoQ · +62.55% YoY

Revenue$80M−61.51%

Pre-tax income−$12M−249.01%

Net income$00.00%+100.00%

Tax$485,000+200.83%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.40· ±5.0% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±5.0%3 of 10×2.40

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%4 of 10×1.29

PPIproducer prices±2.3%2 of 10×1.12

FOMCrate decision±2.1%10 of 24×1.02

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%6 of 19×0.89

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%7 of 19×0.88

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%8 of 12×0.78

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.33 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.33	—
Q1 FY26	May 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.26	—
Q2 FY25	Nov 10 '25 · confirmed	-2.35	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod