What move does the options market price into Orion's report?

Implied ±27.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Orion move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ORNNYSEHeavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors

Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

8.49

pre 8.82 +3.76%

Pre-market15:59 ETdelayed

Open8.81Volume565,176Mkt cap$345.6MP/E55.13EPS0.16

Day8.50 – 8.8396%52-wk8.10 – 17.408%

ORN

Orion Group Holdings Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±27.5%implied · straddle

6.4011.24

spot 8.82exp Mar 19ATM strike 10ATM straddle 2.85IV 60%

Nov 3 closeprovisionalthin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 24

before open · in 112 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−9.29%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

14.00%

of ORN revenue · United States Navy

customerORN 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.08%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

179 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

ORN weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Orion (ORN) is expected to report on Feb 24 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±18.1%
avg realized: ±10.3%

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±29.3%▲+0.95%×0.03

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±13.3%▼−14.79%×1.11

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±21.0%▲+17.76%×0.85

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±21.0%▲+10.77%×0.51

Q1 FY26Mar 4 '26confirmed±12.6%▼−0.07%×0.01

Apr 29 '26Apr 29 '26confirmed±15.6%▲+3.89%×0.25

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±14.2%▼−24.14%×1.70

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed—▼−9.29%—

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q3 FY26—▼−9.29%—

Q2 FY26±14.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Oct 27 close

1.78OI · 2 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

350%Dec 1844d0.09388−1%0.09

report · Feb 24 · before open · est.

1660%Mar 19135d930%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Dec 1844d350%388−1%0.09

report · Feb 24 · before open · est.

Mar 19135d1660%930%1.78

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±27.5%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

2.14%as filednet margin · revenue +15.45% QoQ · +13.80% YoY

Revenue

$256M+15.45% QoQ

Gross profit

$33M+44.55% QoQ

12.94% margin

Operating income

$9M+747.98% QoQ

3.33% margin

Pre-tax income

$6M+259.66% QoQ

Net income

$5M+232.04% QoQ

2.14% margin

Cost of revenue

$223M+12.09% QoQ

Operating expenses

$25M+1.56% QoQ

Other expense

$3M

Tax

$388,000−18.14% QoQ

Revenue$256M+15.45%

Gross profit

$33M+44.55%

12.94% margin

Operating income

$9M+747.98%

3.33% margin

Pre-tax income

$6M+259.66%

Net income

$5M+232.04%

2.14% margin

Cost of revenue

$223M+12.09%

Operating expenses

$25M+1.56%

Other expense

$3M

Tax$388,000−18.14%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.49· ±4.4% vs ±3.0% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±4.4%13 of 24×1.49

GDPgross domestic product±3.9%12 of 19×1.32

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.6%11 of 19×1.22

CPIconsumer prices±2.9%6 of 10×0.97

CPROFcorporate profits±2.5%8 of 12×0.83

PPIproducer prices±2.0%4 of 10×0.67

NFPjobs report±1.9%4 of 10×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.14 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	0.14	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	-0.10	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 4 '26 · confirmed	0.12	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod