What move does the options market price into Natera's report?

Implied ±10.1%, either direction.

NTRANasdaqServices-Medical Laboratories

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

388.24

+9.32 · +2.46%

post 389.39 +0.30%

Closed18:10 ET

Open376.98Volume2.6MMkt cap$54.6BEPS-1.35

Day376.98 – 391.8384%52-wk181.00 – 437.4181%

NTRA

Natera, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.1%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.7%·×1.51·rich

349.51427.75

straddle ±11.9%

spot 388.63exp Nov 20ATM strike 390ATM straddle 54.35IV 81%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+21.37%

vs ±9.7% implied · ×2.20

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

8hUNH · customerUnitedHealth Group Q3 net earnings $4,300 million, EPS $4.56; nine-month net $16,451 million
1dILMN · supplierIllumina selected to help bring precision medicine into everyday healthcare in Singapore
1dAMZN · supplierBetterInvesting™ Magazine Update on Amazon.com and UnitedHealth Group

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.33%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

849 managers

Top fund weight

1.24%

NTRA weight · ARKK

N-PORTJul 31 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Natera (NTRA) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed—▼−0.65%—

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed—▼−6.53%—

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed—▲+7.70%—

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed—▲+0.55%—

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed—▲+1.04%—

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed—▼−3.73%—

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed—▼−11.64%—

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±9.7%▲+21.37%×2.20

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±9.7%▲+21.37%×2.20

May '26—▼−11.64%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 26 close

1.37OI · 5 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

11,245+4%Nov 2016d8,199+9%

2,019+6%Dec 1844d0.424,825+4%0.42

2,577+8%Jan 1572d0.544,815+34%0.54

199+8%Mar 19135d0.24834+2%0.24

427+3%Apr 16163d1.51283−2%1.51

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d11,245+4%8,199+9%1.37

Dec 1844d2,019+6%4,825+4%0.42

Jan 1572d2,577+8%4,815+34%0.54

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.9%

Funds 4

ARKK±0.1%

XBI±0.1%

FTC±0.1%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 2

ILMN±4.4%×0.37

AMZN±2.7%×0.23

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−8.90%as filednet margin · revenue +8.05% QoQ · +37.71% YoY

Revenue$753M+8.05%

Gross profit$485M64.46%+7.62%

Operating income−$76M−10.07%+18.95%

Pre-tax income−$67M+20.73%

Net income−$67M−8.90%+21.30%

Cost of revenue$268M+8.85%

Operating expenses$561M+2.79%

Tax−$261,000−192.23%

Other income$9M−1.68%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 18:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.98· ±4.1% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.1%6 of 10×1.98

GDPgross domestic product±2.3%10 of 19×1.11

PPIproducer prices±2.1%4 of 10×1.02

FOMCrate decision±1.9%16 of 24×0.93

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.9%9 of 19×0.90

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%6 of 12×0.75

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%4 of 10×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.47 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.47	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	-0.60	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.64	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod