What move does the options market price into Northern Oil & Gas's report?

Implied ±19.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Northern Oil & Gas move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

NOGNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

22.58

−2.40 · −9.60%

Regular session15:08 ET

Open24.75Volume2.1MMkt cap$2.7BEPS-5.10Div yield7.21%

Day22.60 – 24.940%52-wk16.85 – 29.4146%

NOG

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±19.1%implied · straddle

20.2229.74

spot 24.98exp Mar 19ATM strike 25ATM straddle 5.60IV 47%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Mar 1

after close · in 117 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.82%

vs ±3.8% implied · ×1.00

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 13 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

6dAR · supplierAntero Resources posts Q3 2026 net income $367 million, adjusted FCF $215 million
6dAM · supplierAntero Midstream reports Q3 net income $393 million, raises 2026 FCF guidance

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.74%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

340 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

NOG weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is expected to report on Mar 1 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.8%
avg realized: ±4.0%

Q3 FY25Oct 21 '25confirmed±10.7%0.00%×0.00

Nov 6 '25Nov 6 '25confirmed±12.0%▲+5.52%×0.46

Feb 10 '26Feb 10 '26confirmed±5.3%▲+3.63%×0.68

Feb 25 '26Feb 25 '26confirmed±9.9%▼−0.87%×0.09

Q1 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±7.5%▲+1.41%×0.19

Q2 FY26Jul 13 '26confirmed±4.7%▲+9.94%×2.12

Aug 6 '26Aug 6 '26confirmed±8.6%▲+6.51%×0.76

Oct 13 '26Oct 13 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+3.82%×1.00

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±3.8%▲+3.82%×1.00

Aug '26±8.6%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.31OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

665+42%Nov 2016d0.203,327+20%0.20

5,5490%Dec 1844d0.717,800+10%0.71

6,072+7%Jan 1572d1.663,651+7%1.66

report · Mar 1 · after close · est.

677+7%Mar 19135d2,219+3%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d665+42%3,327+20%0.20

Dec 1844d5,5490%7,800+10%0.71

Jan 1572d6,072+7%3,651+7%1.66

report · Mar 1 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±19.1%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

31.75%as filednet margin · revenue +14718.75% QoQ · +5.44% YoY

Revenue

$745M+14718.75% QoQ

Gross profit

$618M+595.63% QoQ

82.95% margin

Operating income

$353M+153.83% QoQ

47.31% margin

Pre-tax income

$311M+144.63% QoQ

Net income

$237M+145.26% QoQ

31.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$127M−2.05% QoQ

Operating expenses

$266M−49.90% QoQ

Depreciation $193M

Marketing $46M

SG&A $27M

Other expense

$42M

Tax

$74M+142.74% QoQ

Revenue$745M+14718.75%

Gross profit

$618M+595.63%

82.95% margin

Operating income

$353M+153.83%

47.31% margin

Pre-tax income

$311M+144.63%

Net income

$237M+145.26%

31.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$127M−2.05%

Operating expenses

$266M−49.90%

Depreciation $193M

Marketing $46M

SG&A $27M

Other expense

$42M

Tax$74M+142.74%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.36· ±2.7% vs ±2.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.7%7 of 10×1.36

PPIproducer prices±2.6%7 of 10×1.33

CPIconsumer prices±2.2%6 of 10×1.10

FOMCrate decision±2.1%13 of 24×1.09

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%7 of 19×0.69

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%6 of 12×0.68

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%7 of 19×0.67

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.19 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 13 '26 · confirmed	2.19	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	-5.31	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 21 '25 · confirmed	-1.33	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod