What move does the options market price into NLI's report?

Implied ±5.7%, either direction.

How often does NLI move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

NLNYSEIndustrial Inorganic Chemicals

NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

7.01

Regular session15:59 ET

Open7.01Volume23,120Mkt cap$338.9MEPS-0.52Div yield5.63%

Day7.01 – 7.0150%52-wk4.80 – 8.3362%

NL Industries Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±5.3%·×1.07·fair

6.457.23

straddle ±14.3%

spot 6.84exp Nov 20ATM strike 7.5ATM straddle 1.15IV 82%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structurethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+9.57%

vs ±13.3% implied · ×0.72

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

26.00%

of NL revenue · United States Postal Service

customerNL 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.24%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

80 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

NL weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

NLI (NL) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±21.5%
avg realized: ±5.3%

Nov 6 '24Nov 6 '24confirmed±21.5%▼−8.50%×0.40

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed±13.6%▲+5.48%×0.40

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±15.1%▼−7.39%×0.49

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±28.9%▲+7.02%×0.24

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±31.5%▲+0.85%×0.03

Q1 FY26Mar 9 '26confirmed±30.4%▼−2.33%×0.08

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±17.4%▲+1.52%×0.09

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±13.3%▲+9.57%×0.72

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±13.3%▲+9.57%×0.72

May '26±17.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 close

1.45OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2540%Nov 2016d1750%

70%Feb 19107d0.061110%0.06

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d2540%1750%1.45

Feb 19107d70%1110%0.06

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±14.3%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

22.68%as filednet margin · revenue +7.51% QoQ · +8.05% YoY

Revenue

$44M+7.51% QoQ

Gross profit

$16M+17.24% QoQ

35.62% margin

Operating income

$6M+49.33% QoQ

14.06% margin

Pre-tax income

$12M+88.14% QoQ

Net income

$10M+94.17% QoQ

22.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$28M+2.79% QoQ

Operating expenses

$9M+2.82% QoQ

SG&A $7M

Other operating $3M

Tax

$2M+67.26% QoQ

Other income

$6M+152.95% QoQ

Revenue$44M+7.51%

Gross profit

$16M+17.24%

35.62% margin

Operating income

$6M+49.33%

14.06% margin

Pre-tax income

$12M+88.14%

Net income

$10M+94.17%

22.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$28M+2.79%

Operating expenses

$9M+2.82%

SG&A $7M

Other operating $3M

Other income$6M+152.95%

Tax$2M+67.26%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.36· ±3.1% vs ±2.3% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±3.1%9 of 24×1.36

CPROFcorporate profits±3.1%6 of 12×1.34

NFPjobs report±3.0%4 of 10×1.29

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.5%9 of 19×1.08

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%9 of 19×1.06

PPIproducer prices±1.4%5 of 10×0.63

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%6 of 10×0.53

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.00 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	0.00	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 9 '26 · confirmed	0.09	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.16	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod