What move does the options market price into Neurocrine Biosciences's report?

Implied ±14.7%, either direction · provisional.

NBIXNasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

145.87

pre 158.04 +8.73%

Pre-market08:24 ETdelayed

Open154.44Volume2.0MMkt cap$14.7BP/E22.71EPS6.96

Day154.08 – 158.04100%52-wk122.14 – 186.1256%

NBIX

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±14.7%implied · straddle

123.93166.77

spot 145.35exp Feb 19ATM strike 145ATM straddle 25.20IV 39%

Nov 2 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 10

after close · in 99 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 2

after close

confirmedQ3 FY26Nov 2 close

Implied vs realized

Linked news

16hABBV · supplierAbbVie director Jennifer L. Davis resigns effective Nov 2, 2026
5dTAK · supplierTakeda: six-month revenue JPY 2,407.0 billion; net profit JPY 305,716 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.93%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

781 managers

Top fund weight

0.97%

NBIX weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) is expected to report on Feb 10 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Oct 30 '24Oct 30 '24confirmed—▲+7.01%—

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed—▼−18.53%—

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed—▲+8.36%—

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed—▼−6.24%—

Oct 28 '25Oct 28 '25confirmed—▼−6.35%—

Feb 11 '26Feb 11 '26confirmed—▼−10.43%—

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed—▲+8.86%—

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed—▼−10.08%—

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26—▼−10.08%—

Q1 FY26—▲+8.86%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.76OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,4000%Nov 2017d0.721,9340%0.72

3,9630%Dec 1845d2.181,8210%2.18

1,2990%Jan 1573d1.468900%1.46

report · Feb 10 · after close · est.

150+3%Feb 19108d85+1%

2570%Mar 19136d0.524940%0.52

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d1,4000%1,9340%0.72

Dec 1845d3,9630%1,8210%2.18

Jan 1573d1,2990%8900%1.46

report · Feb 10 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±14.7%

Funds 4

XBI±0.1%

MDY±0.1%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 2

VYGR±8.7%×0.59

XENE±7.0%×0.48

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

18.39%as filednet margin · revenue +17.07% QoQ · +41.24% YoY

Revenue

$1.1B+17.07% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.1B+17.07% QoQ

100.00% margin

Operating income

$331M+118.68% QoQ

29.51% margin

Pre-tax income

$284M+74.91% QoQ

Net income

$207M+43.01% QoQ

18.39% margin

Operating expenses

$791M−1.99% QoQ

SG&A $366M

R&D $364M

Other operating $62M

Other expense

$48M

Tax

$77M+333.71% QoQ

Revenue$1.1B+17.07%

Gross profit

$1.1B+17.07%

100.00% margin

Operating income

$331M+118.68%

29.51% margin

Pre-tax income

$284M+74.91%

Net income

$207M+43.01%

18.39% margin

Cost of revenue

Operating expenses

$791M−1.99%

SG&A $366M

R&D $364M

Other operating $62M

Other expense

$48M

Tax$77M+333.71%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 08:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.30· ±1.8% vs ±1.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.8%5 of 10×1.30

PPIproducer prices±1.7%8 of 11×1.19

FOMCrate decision±1.4%13 of 24×1.00

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%4 of 11×0.97

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%13 of 20×0.95

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%6 of 12×0.89

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%13 of 20×0.86

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.96 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	1.96	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	1.39	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	1.91	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod