What move does the options market price into Marathon Petroleum's report?

Implied ±5.6%, either direction.

How often does Marathon Petroleum move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MPCNYSEPetroleum Refining

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

444.73

Closed19:47 ET

Open437.00Volume2.1MMkt cap$124.9BP/E15.33EPS29.01Div yield0.90%

Day437.00 – 445.0097%52-wk160.07 – 493.9885%

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±3.2%·×1.73·rich

419.88469.58

straddle ±9.7%

spot 444.73exp Nov 20ATM strike 440ATM straddle 50.65IV 60%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 3

before open · in 3 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.82%

vs ±7.1% implied · ×0.26

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

12.00%

of Chord Energy revenue

supplierCHRD 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.33%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

1,953 managers

Top fund weight

4.48%

MPC weight · XLE

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reports on Nov 3 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.8%
avg realized: ±3.2%

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±3.8%▲+6.74%×1.77

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±4.0%▲+0.85%×0.21

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±3.0%▲+0.57%×0.19

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed±5.5%▼−6.13%×1.11

Feb 3 '26Feb 3 '26confirmed±5.7%▲+6.03%×1.05

Q1 FY26Apr 13 '26confirmed±3.3%▼−0.60%×0.18

May 5 '26May 5 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+3.16%×0.55

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±7.1%▲+1.82%×0.26

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±7.1%▲+1.82%×0.26

May '26±5.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.62OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

7,476+2%Nov 2020d12,115+3%

10,8050%Dec 1848d1.238,768+1%1.23

17,685+2%Jan 1576d1.2614,088+1%1.26

3,4630%Mar 19139d0.744,6840%0.74

587+2%Apr 16167d0.292,055+1%0.29

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d7,476+2%12,115+3%0.62

Dec 1848d10,8050%8,768+1%1.23

Jan 1576d17,685+2%14,088+1%1.26

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.7%

Funds 4

XLE±0.4%

VTV±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

FB±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

10.58%as filednet margin · revenue +51.40% QoQ · +53.48% YoY

Revenue

$52.3B+51.40% QoQ

Gross profit

$9.3B+180.41% QoQ

17.72% margin

Operating income

$7.3B+421.51% QoQ

13.99% margin

Pre-tax income

$7.0B+575.24% QoQ

Net income

$5.5B+550.76% QoQ

10.58% margin

Cost of revenue

$43.1B+37.76% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.0B+2.52% QoQ

SG&A $894M

Depreciation $838M

Other operating $219M

Other expense

$340M

Tax

$1.4B+689.07% QoQ

Revenue$52.3B+51.40%

Gross profit

$9.3B+180.41%

17.72% margin

Operating income

$7.3B+421.51%

13.99% margin

Pre-tax income

$7.0B+575.24%

Net income

$5.5B+550.76%

10.58% margin

Cost of revenue

$43.1B+37.76%

Operating expenses

$2.0B+2.52%

SG&A $894M

Depreciation $838M

Other operating $219M

Other expense

$340M

Tax$1.4B+689.07%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.40· ±2.1% vs ±1.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.1%7 of 10×1.40

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%9 of 12×1.07

FOMCrate decision±1.5%15 of 24×1.01

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%13 of 19×0.95

PPIproducer prices±1.4%4 of 10×0.94

NFPjobs report±1.4%6 of 10×0.93

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%12 of 19×0.86

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 17.73 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	17.73	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 13 '26 · confirmed	1.73	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	4.51	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod