What move does the options market price into MBX Biosciences's report?

Implied ±4.7%, either direction.

How often does MBX Biosciences move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 6 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MBXNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

50.68

+2.22 · +4.57%

Regular session12:32 ET

Open48.55Volume427,887Mkt cap$2.3BEPS-2.37

Day48.41 – 50.68100%52-wk21.90 – 72.6457%

MBX

MBX Biosciences, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.7%implied · report alone

46.1850.74

straddle ±17.5%

spot 48.46exp Nov 20ATM strike 50ATM straddle 10.00IV 125%

Nov 5 closereport share · term structurethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

—

Calendar

Last report

−0.55%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+10.68%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

175 managers

Top fund weight

0.05%

MBX weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

MBX Biosciences (MBX) is expected to report on Nov 9 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 6≥ implied

avg implied: ±19.9%
avg realized: ±6.9%

Mar 17 '25Mar 17 '25confirmed—▲+1.72%—

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±12.4%▲+0.27%×0.02

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±46.4%▼−4.63%×0.10

Nov 6 '25Nov 6 '25confirmed±14.7%▲+9.71%×0.66

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed±17.0%▲+15.19%×0.89

Q1 FY26Mar 12 '26confirmed±16.9%▼−3.42%×0.20

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±11.9%▲+8.06%×0.67

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed—▼−0.55%—

quarterimplied−50%0+50%realized×

Q2 FY26—▼−0.55%—

May '26±11.9%▲+8.06%×0.67

Q1 FY26±16.9%▼−3.42%×0.20

Jan '26±17.0%▲+15.19%×0.89

Nov '25±14.7%▲+9.71%×0.66

Aug '25±46.4%▼−4.63%×0.10

2 older reports

May '25±12.4%▲+0.27%×0.02

Mar '25—▲+1.72%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.30OI · 4 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

530%Nov 2014d1790%

4070%Dec 1842d1.213360%1.21

1210%Jan 1570d0.111,0700%0.11

90%Apr 16161d0.091040%0.09

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d530%1790%0.30

Dec 1842d4070%3360%1.21

Jan 1570d1210%1,0700%0.11

Apr 16161d90%1040%0.09

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.5%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

No filed income statement.

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 5 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 12:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.36· ±5.9% vs ±4.3% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±5.9%7 of 11×1.36

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.4%13 of 20×1.02

NFPjobs report±4.4%6 of 10×1.01

GDPgross domestic product±4.3%12 of 20×0.99

CPROFcorporate profits±4.0%6 of 12×0.92

CPIconsumer prices±2.9%4 of 11×0.68

FOMCrate decision±2.6%11 of 18×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±6% · tick = ±4.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.78 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.78	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 12 '26 · confirmed	-0.50	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod