What move does the options market price into MBX Biosciences's report?

Implied ±17.8%, either direction.

How often does MBX Biosciences move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 6 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MBXNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

52.44

−2.56 · −4.66%

Regular session15:49 ET

Open55.00Volume287,590Mkt cap$2.6BEPS-2.37

Day52.18 – 55.508%52-wk20.27 – 72.6461%

MBX

MBX Biosciences, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±17.8%implied · straddle

45.1864.82

spot 55.00exp Nov 20ATM strike 55ATM straddle 11.55IV 122%

Nov 3 closethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.55%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+10.68%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

175 managers

Top fund weight

0.05%

MBX weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

MBX Biosciences (MBX) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 6≥ implied

avg implied: ±19.9%
avg realized: ±6.9%

Mar 17 '25Mar 17 '25confirmed—▲+1.72%—

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±12.4%▲+0.27%×0.02

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±46.4%▼−4.63%×0.10

Nov 6 '25Nov 6 '25confirmed±14.7%▲+9.71%×0.66

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed±17.0%▲+15.19%×0.89

Q1 FY26Mar 12 '26confirmed±16.9%▼−3.42%×0.20

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±11.9%▲+8.06%×0.67

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed—▼−0.55%—

quarterimplied−50%0+50%realized×

Q2 FY26—▼−0.55%—

May '26±11.9%▲+8.06%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.22OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

400%Nov 2016d179+9%

373+1%Dec 1844d1.12333+4%1.12

119+3%Jan 1572d0.148380%0.14

90%Apr 16163d0.09104+2%0.09

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d400%179+9%0.22

Dec 1844d373+1%333+4%1.12

Jan 1572d119+3%8380%0.14

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.8%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

No filed income statement.

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.39· ±6.1% vs ±4.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±6.1%6 of 10×1.39

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.6%12 of 19×1.06

GDPgross domestic product±4.5%11 of 19×1.03

NFPjobs report±4.4%6 of 10×1.00

CPROFcorporate profits±4.0%6 of 12×0.91

CPIconsumer prices±3.2%4 of 10×0.73

FOMCrate decision±2.7%10 of 17×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±7% · tick = ±4.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.78 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.78	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 12 '26 · confirmed	-0.50	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod