What move does the options market price into Macy's's report?

Implied ±4.0%, either direction.

MNYSERetail-Department Stores

Macy's, Inc. (M) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

24.12

−0.60 · −2.43%

post 24.15 +0.13%

Closed17:22 ET

Open24.80Volume5.6MMkt cap$6.3BP/E8.66EPS2.79Div yield3.14%

Day23.83 – 24.8332%52-wk16.42 – 26.3678%

Macy's, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.2%·×0.94·fair

23.1625.06

straddle ±10.3%

spot 24.11exp Dec 4ATM strike 24ATM straddle 2.91IV 49%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 2

before open · in 31 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−4.70%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

20.60%

of G-III Apparel Group revenue

supplierGIII 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.63%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

498 managers

Top fund weight

0.17%

M weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Macy's (M) is expected to report on Dec 2 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Dec 11 '24Dec 11 '24confirmed—▼−0.84%—

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed—▼−0.68%—

May 28 '25May 28 '25confirmed—▼−0.33%—

Sep 3 '25Sep 3 '25confirmed—▲+20.68%—

Q3 FY25Dec 3 '25confirmed—▼−1.10%—

Mar 18 '26Mar 18 '26confirmed—▲+4.73%—

Q1 FY26Jun 3 '26confirmed—▲+0.60%—

Q2 FY26Sep 10 '26confirmed—▼−4.70%—

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26—▼−4.70%—

Q1 FY26—▲+0.60%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 26 close

7.75OI · 9 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Dec 4 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2 nearer expiries

1,313+17%Nov 65d0.791,671+6%0.79

448+5%Nov 1312d0.895040%0.89

10,5900%Nov 2019d0.9211,5420%0.92

25—Nov 2726d0.7135—0.71

2 later expiries

1,904+1%Feb 19110d1.031,8550%1.03

3,0680%Mar 19138d1.47

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

2 nearer expiries

Nov 65d1,313+17%1,671+6%0.79

Nov 1312d448+5%5040%0.89

Nov 2019d10,5900%11,542

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.3%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

SCHD±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 4

CAL±7.7%×0.75

CRI±4.9%×0.48

MOV±3.9%×0.38

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

3.34%as filednet margin · revenue +3.41% QoQ · +1.20% YoY

Revenue

$5.1B+3.41% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.2B+8.81% QoQ

43.70% margin

Operating income

$244M+117.86% QoQ

4.82% margin

Pre-tax income

$227M+144.09% QoQ

Net income

$169M+168.25% QoQ

3.34% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B−0.42% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.0B+2.45% QoQ

Other expense

$17M

Tax

$58M+93.33% QoQ

Revenue$5.1B+3.41%

Gross profit

$2.2B+8.81%

43.70% margin

Operating income

$244M+117.86%

4.82% margin

Pre-tax income

$227M+144.09%

Net income

$169M+168.25%

3.34% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B−0.42%

Operating expenses

$2.0B+2.45%

Other expense

$17M

Tax$58M+93.33%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 1 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.32· ±2.8% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.8%4 of 10×1.32

CPIconsumer prices±2.4%5 of 10×1.17

NFPjobs report±2.3%4 of 10×1.11

CPROFcorporate profits±2.2%5 of 12×1.03

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%11 of 19×0.98

FOMCrate decision±1.9%8 of 24×0.90

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%9 of 19×0.84

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.62 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Sep 10 '26 · confirmed	0.62	—
Q1 FY26	Jun 3 '26 · confirmed	0.23	—
Q3 FY25	Dec 3 '25 · confirmed	0.04	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod