What move does the options market price into Intuitive Machines's report?

Implied ±6.3%, either direction.

How often does Intuitive Machines move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

LUNRNasdaqSearch, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

9.92

−0.56 · −5.32%

post 9.96 +0.38%

Closed19:55 ET

Open10.50Volume8.2MMkt cap$2.3BEPS-0.94

Day9.74 – 10.7322%52-wk7.78 – 46.756%

LUNR

Intuitive Machines, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±6.3%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±11.3%·×0.56·cheap

9.3110.55

straddle ±13.6%

spot 9.93exp Nov 13ATM strike 10ATM straddle 1.59IV 126%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 12

before open · in 7 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.60%

vs ±12.8% implied · ×0.28

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 13 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

78.00%

of LUNR revenue · Undisclosed direct customer

customerLUNR 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+30.46%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

328 managers

Top fund weight

3.82%

LUNR weight · NASA

N-PORTAug 31 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) reports on Nov 12 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.6%
avg realized: ±11.3%

Nov 14 '24Nov 14 '24confirmed±21.5%▼−13.01%×0.61

Mar 24 '25Mar 24 '25confirmed±14.9%▲+30.04%×2.01

May 13 '25May 13 '25confirmed±11.8%▲+22.42%×1.89

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±12.5%▼−4.29%×0.34

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed±5.6%▼−10.19%×1.82

Q1 FY26Mar 19 '26confirmed±11.1%▲+4.42%×0.40

May 14 '26May 14 '26confirmed±10.9%▲+2.35%×0.22

Q2 FY26Aug 13 '26confirmed±12.8%▲+3.60%×0.28

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±12.8%▲+3.60%×0.28

May '26±10.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.73OI · 7 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,825+5%Nov 61d0.545,193+3%0.54

report · Nov 12 · before open · confirmed

1,726+2%Nov 138d2,363+4%

4,639+6%Nov 2015d0.519,024+5%0.51

690+38%Nov 2722d0.77899+11%0.77

3 later expiries

10,231+3%Dec 1843d0.4025,702+1%0.40

52,8090%Jan 1571d0.71

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 61d2,825+5%5,193+3%0.54

report · Nov 12 · before open · confirmed

Nov 138d1,726+2%2,363+4%0.73

Nov 2015d4,639+6%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.6%

Funds 4

NASA±0.5%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−30.48%as filednet margin · revenue +10.41% QoQ · +309.77% YoY

Revenue$206M+10.41%

Gross profit$39M18.74%+16.32%

Operating income−$47M−22.86%−20.24%

Pre-tax income−$63M−19.62%

Net income−$63M−30.48%−19.63%

Cost of revenue$168M+9.13%

Operating expenses$86M+18.44%

Tax$8,000+300.00%

Other expense−$16M−17.80%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.35· ±6.9% vs ±5.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±6.9%4 of 10×1.35

NFPjobs report±6.8%4 of 10×1.34

FOMCrate decision±5.1%13 of 24×1.00

GDPgross domestic product±4.8%7 of 19×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±4.7%4 of 12×0.92

CPIconsumer prices±4.0%5 of 10×0.78

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.5%5 of 19×0.68

Bar = avg |move| to ±7% · tick = ±5.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±5.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.29 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 13 '26 · confirmed	-0.29	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 19 '26 · confirmed	-0.25	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	-0.06	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod