What move does the options market price into Lennar's report?

Implied ±11.1%, either direction.

How often does Lennar move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

LENNYSEGeneral Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs

Lennar Corp (LEN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

86.42

pre 89.78 +4.29%

Pre-market09:19 ETdelayed

Open87.00Volume4.0MMkt cap$20.5BP/E15.65Div yield2.32%

Day86.93 – 89.8099%52-wk71.78 – 130.8330%

LEN

Lennar Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.1%implied · straddle

76.5395.65

spot 86.09exp Dec 18ATM strike 85ATM straddle 11.25IV 47%

Nov 3 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 15

after close · in 41 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.71%

vs ±5.4% implied · ×0.32

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 16 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

88.00%

of Millrose Properties revenue

supplierMRP 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.25%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

945 managers

Top fund weight

0.48%

LEN weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Lennar (LEN) is expected to report on Dec 15 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.0%
avg realized: ±4.0%

Dec 18 '24Dec 18 '24confirmed±4.9%▼−5.16%×1.05

Mar 20 '25Mar 20 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−4.04%×0.69

Jun 16 '25Jun 16 '25confirmed±6.0%▼−4.46%×0.74

Sep 18 '25Sep 18 '25confirmed±5.0%▼−4.18%×0.83

Dec 16 '25Dec 16 '25confirmed±4.7%▼−4.54%×0.96

Q1 FY26Mar 12 '26confirmed±3.7%▲+2.62%×0.71

Q2 FY26Jun 11 '26confirmed±4.8%▼−4.90%×1.03

Q3 FY26Sep 16 '26confirmed±5.4%▲+1.71%×0.32

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.4%▲+1.71%×0.32

Q2 FY26±4.8%▼−4.90%×1.03

Q1 FY26±3.7%▲+2.62%×0.71

Dec '25±4.7%▼−4.54%×0.96

Sep '25±5.0%▼−4.18%×0.83

Jun '25±6.0%▼−4.46%×0.74

2 older reports

Mar '25±5.8%▼−4.04%×0.69

Dec '24±4.9%▼−5.16%×1.05

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 27 close

1.08OI · 9 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Dec 18 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3 nearer expiries

1,583+1%Nov 62d0.981,616+6%0.98

8000%Nov 139d1.40573+1%1.40

11,638−1%Nov 2016d1.1510,154+1%1.15

177+12%Nov 2723d1.01175+4%1.01

67+131%Dec 430d0.60111+21%0.60

report · Dec 15 · after close · est.

7,1470%Dec 1844d6,6140%

12,658+1%Jan 1572d0.5622,680+4%0.56

2,662+5%Feb 19107d1.741,526−2%1.74

2,4890%Mar 19135d1.301,9200%1.30

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

3 nearer expiries

Nov 62d1,583+1%1,616+6%0.98

Nov 139d8000%573+1%1.40

Nov 2016d11,638−1%10,154+1%1.15

Nov 2723d177+12%175+4%1.01

Dec 430d67+131%111+21%0.60

report · Dec 15 · after close · est.

Dec 1844d7,1470%6,6140%1.08

Jan 1572d12,658+1%22,680+4%0.56

Feb 19107d2,662+5%1,526−2%1.74

Mar 19135d2,4890%1,9200%1.30

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.1%

Funds 4

XLY±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

SPY±0.0%

Suppliers 2

GFF±6.1%×0.55

PCYO±2.5%×0.22

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

3.55%as filednet margin · revenue +1.34% QoQ · −8.67% YoY

Revenue

$8.0B+1.34% QoQ

Gross profit

$619M+11.46% QoQ

7.69% margin

Operating income

$460M+15.45% QoQ

5.71% margin

Pre-tax income

$387M−6.32% QoQ

Net income

$285M−7.35% QoQ

3.55% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.4B+0.58% QoQ

Operating expenses

$159M+1.31% QoQ

SG&A $138M

Other operating $21M

Other expense

$73M

Tax

$102M−3.30% QoQ

Revenue$8.0B+1.34%

Gross profit

$619M+11.46%

7.69% margin

Operating income

$460M+15.45%

5.71% margin

Pre-tax income

$387M−6.32%

Net income

$285M−7.35%

3.55% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.4B+0.58%

Operating expenses

$159M+1.31%

SG&A $138M

Other operating $21M

Other expense

$73M

Tax$102M−3.30%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 09:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.61· ±2.6% vs ±1.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.6%5 of 10×1.61

PPIproducer prices±2.4%4 of 10×1.45

FOMCrate decision±2.2%10 of 24×1.35

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%5 of 10×1.17

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%9 of 19×0.82

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%9 of 19×0.80

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%5 of 12×0.62

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.19 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Sep 16 '26 · confirmed	1.19	—
Q2 FY26	Jun 11 '26 · confirmed	—	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 12 '26 · confirmed	—	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod