How often does ICF International move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ICFINasdaqServices-Management Consulting Services

ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

96.81

−0.84 · −0.86%

post 96.81 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open96.31Volume115,350Mkt cap$1.8BP/E19.96EPS4.85Div yield0.57%

Day95.91 – 97.0678%52-wk58.62 – 99.3994%

ICFI

ICF International, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

News

37dLos Angeles County Selects ICF for $70 Million in New Energy Efficiency Work Orders
41dICF Announces Timing of Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
82dICF International Eyes Growth Rebound as Energy, AI and Federal Modernization Gain Traction

News

Next report

Last report

+0.67%

vs ±6.2% implied · ×0.11

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 24 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

43.00%

of ICFI revenue · U.S. federal government departments and agencies

customerICFI 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+40.07%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

233 managers

Top fund weight

0.04%

ICFI weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

ICF International (ICFI) reports on Nov 5 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.8%
avg realized: ±4.3%

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±8.5%▼−6.06%×0.71

Jan 15 '26Jan 15 '26confirmed±4.6%▼−0.30%×0.07

Feb 26 '26Feb 26 '26confirmed±7.0%▲+4.28%×0.61

Q1 FY26Mar 26 '26confirmed±8.4%▼−1.33%×0.16

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±5.8%▼−6.56%×1.13

Q2 FY26Jun 24 '26confirmed±8.1%▼−4.09%×0.51

Aug 6 '26Aug 6 '26confirmed±6.1%▲+11.36%×1.87

Sep 24 '26Sep 24 '26confirmed±6.2%▲+0.67%×0.11

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Sep '26±6.2%▲+0.67%×0.11

Aug '26±6.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 19 close

—OI · 3 expiries · Oct 19 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

0—Nov 2016d0—

20%Dec 1844d0.2580%0.25

0—Mar 19135d—0——

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d0—0——

Dec 1844d20%80%0.25

Mar 19135d0—0—

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

5.68%as filednet margin · revenue +8.46% QoQ · −0.35% YoY

Revenue

$474M+8.46% QoQ

Gross profit

$177M+5.86% QoQ

37.23% margin

Operating income

$40M+14.43% QoQ

8.41% margin

Pre-tax income

$33M+19.68% QoQ

Net income

$27M+31.31% QoQ

5.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$298M+10.06% QoQ

Operating expenses

$137M+3.59% QoQ

SG&A $123M

Depreciation $13M

Other expense

$7M

Tax

$6M−15.08% QoQ

Revenue$474M+8.46%

Gross profit

$177M+5.86%

37.23% margin

Operating income

$40M+14.43%

8.41% margin

Pre-tax income

$33M+19.68%

Net income

$27M+31.31%

5.68% margin

Cost of revenue

$298M+10.06%

Operating expenses

$137M+3.59%

SG&A $123M

Depreciation $13M

Other expense

$7M

Tax$6M−15.08%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.85· ±4.3% vs ±1.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.3%6 of 10×2.85

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.3%10 of 19×1.49

PPIproducer prices±2.2%6 of 10×1.44

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%3 of 10×1.07

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%11 of 19×0.96

FOMCrate decision±1.4%5 of 24×0.94

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%7 of 12×0.91

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.49 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jun 24 '26 · confirmed	1.49	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 26 '26 · confirmed	1.12	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	1.28	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod